Critique
of Central Banking
By
Henry C K Liu
Part I: Monetary
theology
Part II: The European Experience
Part III-a:
The US
Experience
Part III-b: More on the US Experience
This
article appeared in AToL
on November 27, 2002
Most
central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), see their prime
objective as the maintenance of "sound financial conditions", not
economic growth, on the belief that the former must be a precondition
for the latter, a belief not always validated by events.
It is
sometimes said that war's legitimate child is revolution and
war's bastard child is inflation. World War I was no exception. The US
national debt multiplied 27 times to finance the nation's participation
in that war, from US$1 billion to $27 billion. Far from ruining the
United States, the war catapulted the country into the front ranks of
the world's leading economic and financial powers. The national debt
turned out to be a blessing, for government securities are
indispensable for a vibrant credit market.
Inflation
was a different story. By the end of World War I, in 1919, US
prices were rising at the rate of 15 percent annually, but the economy
roared ahead. In response, the Federal Reserve Board raised the
discount rate in quick succession, from 4 to 7 percent, and kept it
there for 18 months to try to rein in inflation. The result was that in
1921, 506 banks failed. Deflation descended on the economy like a
perfect storm, with commodity prices falling 50 percent from their 1920
peak, throwing farmers into mass bankruptcies. Business activity fell
by one-third; manufacturing output fell by 42 percent; unemployment
rose fivefold to 11.9 percent, adding 4 million to the jobless count.
The economy came to a screeching halt. From the Fed's perspective,
declining prices were the goal, not the problem; unemployment was
necessary to restore US industry to a sound footing, freeing it from
wage-pushed inflation. Potent medicine always came with a bitter taste,
the central bankers explained.
At this
point, a technical process inadvertently gave the New York
Federal Reserve Bank, which was closely allied with internationalist
banking interest, preeminent influence over the Federal Reserve Board
in Washington, the composition of which represented a more balanced
national interest. The initial operation of the Fed did not use the
open-market operation of purchasing or selling government securities as
a method of managing the money supply. Money in the banking system was
created entirely through the discount window at the regional Federal
Reserve Banks. Instead of buying or selling government bonds, the
regional Feds accepted "real bills" of trade, which when paid off would
extinguish money in the banking system, making the money supply
self-regulating in accordance with the "real bills" doctrine. The
regional Feds bought government securities not to adjust money supply,
but to enhance their separate operating profit by parking idle funds in
interest-bearing yet super-safe government securities.
Bank
economists at that time did not understand that when the regional
Feds independently bought government securities, the aggregate effect
would result in macro-economic implications of injecting "high power"
money into the banking system, with which commercial banks could create
more money in multiple by lending recycles. When the government sold
bonds, the reverse would happen. When the Fed made open market
transactions, interest rates would rise or fall accordingly in
financial markets. And when regional Feds did not act in unison, the
credit market could become confused or become disaggregated, as one
regional Fed might buy while another might sell government securities
in its open market operations.
Benjamin
Strong, first president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank,
saw the problem and persuaded the other 11 regional Feds to let the New
York Fed handle all their transactions in a coordinated manner. The
regional Feds formed their own Open Market Investment Committee for the
purpose of maximizing overall profit for the whole system. This
committee was dominated by the New York Fed, which was closely linked
to big-money center bank interests which in turn were closely tied to
international financial markets. The Federal Reserve Board approved the
arrangement without full understanding of its full implication: that
the Fed was falling under the undue influence of the New York
internationalist bankers. This fatal flaw would reveal itself in the
Fed's role in causing and its impotence in dealing with the 1929 crash.
The deep
1920-21 depression eventually recovered into the Roaring
Twenties, which, like the New Economy bubble of the 1990s, left some
segments of economy and the population in them lingering in a depressed
state. Farmers remained victimized by depressed commodity prices and
factory workers shared in the prosperity only by working longer hours
and assuming debt with the easy money that the banks provided. Unions
lost 30 percent of their membership because of high unemployment. The
prosperity was entirely fueled by the wealth effect of a speculative
boom in the stock market that by the end of the decade would face the
1929 crash and land the nation and the world in the Great Depression.
Historical data showed that when New York Fed president Strong leaned
on the regional Feds to ease the discount rate on an already overheated
economy in 1927, the Fed lost its last window of opportunity to prevent
the 1929 crash. Some historians claimed that Strong did so to fulfill
his internationalist vision at the risk of endangering the national
interest.
When money
is not backed by gold, its exchange value must be managed by
government, more specifically by the monetary policies of the central
bank. Yet central bankers tend to be attracted to the gold standard
because it can relieve them of the unpleasant and thankless
responsibility of unpopular monetary policies to sustain the value of
money. Central bankers have been caricatured as party spoilers who take
away the punch bowl just when the party gets going.
Yet even a
gold standard is based on a fixed value of money to gold,
set to reflect the underlying economical conditions at the time of its
setting. Therein lies the inescapable need for human judgment. Instead
of focusing on the appropriateness of the level of money valuation
under changing economic conditions, central banks often become fixated
on merely maintaining a previously set exchange rate between money and
gold, doing serious damage in the process to any economy out of sync
with that fixed rate. It seldom occurs to central bankers that the
fixed rate was the problem, not the economy. When the exchange value of
a currency falls, central bankers often feel a personal sense of
failure, while they merely shrug their shoulders to refer to natural
laws of finance when the economy collapses from an overvalued currency.
The return
to the gold standard in war-torn Europe in the 1920s was
engineered by a coalition of internationalist central bankers on both
sides of the Atlantic as a prerequisite for postwar economic
reconstruction. President Strong of the New York Fed and his former
partners at the House of Morgan were closely associated with the Bank
of England, the Banque de France, the Reichsbank, and the central banks
of Austria, the Netherlands, Italy, and Belgium, as well as with
leading internationalist private bankers in those countries. Montagu
Norman, governor of the Bank of England from 1920-44, enjoyed a long
and close personal friendship with Strong as well as ideological
alliance. Their joint commitment to restore the gold standard in Europe
and so to bring about a return to the "international financial
normalcy" of the prewar years was well documented. Norman recognized
that the impairment of Britain's financial hegemony meant that, to
accomplish postwar economic reconstruction that would preserve British
privilege, Europe would "need the active cooperation of our friends in
the United States".
Like other
New York bankers, Strong perceived World War I as an
opportunity to expand US participation in international finance,
allowing New York to move toward coveted international-finance-center
status to rival London's historical preeminence, through the
development of a commercial paper market, or bankers' acceptances,
breaking London's long monopoly. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913
permitted the Federal Reserve Banks to buy, or rediscount, such paper.
This allowed US banks in New York to play an increasingly central role
in international finance in competition with the London market.
Herbert
Hoover, after losing his second-term US presidential election
to Franklin D Roosevelt as a result of the 1929 crash, criticized
Strong as "a mental annex to Europe", and blamed Strong's
internationalist commitment to facilitating Europe's postwar economic
recovery for the US stock-market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great
Depression that robbed Hoover of a second term. Europe's return to the
gold standard, with Britain's insistence on what Hoover termed a
"fictitious rate" of US$4.86 to the pound sterling, required Strong to
expand US credit by keeping the discount rate unrealistically low and
to manipulate the Fed's open market operations to keep US interest rate
low to ease market pressures on the overvalued pound sterling. Hoover,
with justification, ascribed Strong's internationalist policies to what
he viewed as the malign persuasions of Norman and other European
central bankers, especially Hjalmar Schacht of the Reichsbank and
Charles Rist of the Bank of France. From the mid-1920s onward, the US
experienced credit-pushed inflation, which fueled the stock-market
bubble that finally collapsed in 1929.
Within the
Federal Reserve System, Strong's low-rate policies of the
mid-1920s also provoked substantial regional opposition, particularly
from Midwestern and agricultural elements, who generally endorsed
Hoover's subsequent critical analysis. Throughout the 1920s, two of the
Federal Reserve Board's directors, Adolph C Miller, a professional
economist, and Charles S Hamlin, perennially disapproved of the degree
to which they believed Strong subordinated domestic to international
considerations.
The
fairness of Hoover's allegation is subject to debate, but the fact
that there was a divergence of priority between the White House and the
Fed is beyond dispute, as is the fact that what is good for the
international financial system may not always be good for a national
economy. This is evidenced today by the collapse of one economy after
another under the current international finance architecture that all
central banks support instinctively out of a sense of institutional
solidarity.
The issue
of government control over foreign loans also brought the
Fed, dominated by Strong, into direct conflict with Hoover when the
latter was secretary of commerce. Hoover believed that the US
government should have right of approval on foreign loans based on
national-interest considerations and that the proceeds of US loans
should be spent on US goods and services. Strong opposed all such
restrictions as undesirable government intervention in free trade and
international finance.
In July and
August 1927, Strong, despite ominous data on mounting
market speculation and inflation, pushed the Fed to lower the discount
rate from 4 to 3 percent to relieve market pressures again on the
overvalued British pound. In July 1927, the central bankers of Great
Britain, the United States, France, and Weimar Germany met on Long
Island in the US to discuss means of increasing Britain's gold reserves
and stabilizing the European currency situation. Strong's reduction of
the discount rate and purchase of 12 million pound sterling, for which
he paid the Bank of England in gold, appeared to come directly from
that meeting. One of the French bankers in attendance, Charles Rist,
reported that Strong said that US authorities would reduce the discount
rate as "un petit coup de whisky for the stock exchange".
Strong pushed this reduction through the Fed despite strong opposition
from Miller and fellow board member James McDougal of the Chicago Fed,
who represented Midwestern bankers, who generally did not share New
York's internationalist preoccupation.
Frank
Altschul, partner in the New York branch of the transnational
investment bank Lazard Freres, told Emile Moreau, the governor of the
Bank of France, that "the reasons given by Mr Strong as justification
for the reduction in the discount rate are being taken seriously by no
one, and that everyone in the United States is convinced that Mr Strong
wanted to aid Mr Norman by supporting the pound". Other correspondence
in Strong's own files suggests that he was giving priority to
international monetary conditions rather than to US export needs,
contrary to his public arguments. Writing to Norman, who praised his
handling of the affair as "masterly", Strong described the US discount
rate reduction as "our year's contribution to reconstruction". The
Fed's ease in 1927 forced money to flow not into the overheated real
economy, which was unable to absorb further investment, but into the
speculative financial market, which led to the crash of 1929. Strong
died in October 1928, one year before the crash, and was spared the
pain of having to see the devastating results of his internationalist
policies.
Scholarly
debate still continues as to whether Strong's effort to
facilitate European economic reconstruction compromised the US domestic
economy and, in particular, led him to subordinate US monetary policies
to internationalist demands. There is, however, little disagreement
that the overall monetary strategy of European central banks had been
misguided in its reliance on the restoration of the gold standard.
Critics suggest that the deep commitment of Strong, Norman, and other
international bankers to returning the pound, the mark, and other major
European currencies to the gold standard at overly high parities, which
they were then forced to maintain at all costs, including indifference
to deflation, had the effect of undercutting Europe's postwar economic
recovery. Not only did Strong and his fellow central bankers through
their monetary policies contribute to the Great Depression, but their
continuing fixation to gold also acted as a straitjacket that in effect
precluded expansionist counter-cyclical measures.
The
inflexibility of the gold standard and the central bankers'
determination to defend their national currencies' convertibility into
gold at almost any cost drastically limited the options available to
them when responding to the global crisis. This picture fits the
situation of the fixed-exchange-rates regime that produced recurring
financial crises in the 1990s and that has yet to run its full course.
In 1927, Strong's unconditional support of the gold standard, which
emphasized the financial predominance of the United States, with the
largest holdings of gold in the world, exacerbated nascent
international economic problems. In similar ways, dollar hegemony does
the same damage to the global economy today. Just as the international
gold standard itself was one of the major factors underlying and
exacerbating the Great Depression that followed the 1929 crash, since
the conditions that had sustained it before the war no longer existed,
the fixed-exchange-rates system set up by the Bretton Woods regime
after World War II will cause a total collapse of the current
international financial architecture with equally tragic outcomes.
The nature
of and constraints on US internationalism after World War I
had parallels in US internationalism after World War II and in US
globalization after the Cold War. Hoover bitterly charged Strong with
reckless placement of the interests of the international financial
system ahead of US national interest and domestic concerns. Strong
sincerely believed his support for European currency stabilization also
promoted the best interests of the United States, as post-Cold War
neo-liberal market fundamentalists sincerely believe its promotion
enhances the US national interest. Unfortunately, sincerity is not a
vaccine against falsehood.
Strong
argued repeatedly that volatile exchange rates, especially when
the dollar was at a premium against other currencies, made it difficult
for US exporters to price their goods competitively. As he had done
during the war, on numerous later occasions, Strong also stressed the
need to prevent an influx of gold into the United States and consequent
domestic inflation, by the US making loans to Europe, pursuing lenient
debt policies, and accepting European imports on generous terms. Strong
never questioned the parities set for the mark and the pound sterling.
He merely accepted that returning the pound to gold at prewar exchange
rates required British deflation and US efforts to use lower US
interest rates to alleviate market pressures on sterling. Like Fed
chairman Paul Volcker in the 1980s, but unlike Treasury secretary
Robert Rubin in the 1990s, Strong mistook a cheap dollar as serving the
national interest, while Rubin understood correctly that a strong
dollar is in the national interest.
When Norman
sent him a copy of John Maynard Keynes' Tract on
Monetary Reform, Strong commented "that some of his [Keynes']
conclusions are thoroughly unwarranted and show a great lack of
knowledge of American affairs and of the Federal Reserve System".
Within a decade, Keynes became the most influential economist in modern
history.
The major
flaw in the European effort for post-World War I economic
reconstruction was its attempt to reconstruct the past through its
attachment to the gold standard, with little vision of a new future.
The democratic governments of the moneyed class that inherited power
from the fall of monarchies did not fully comprehend the implication of
the disappearance of the monarch as a ruler, whose financial
architecture they tried to continue for the benefit of their bourgeois
class. The broadening of the political franchise in most European
countries after the war had made it far more difficult for governments
and central bankers to resist electoral pressures for increased social
spending and the demand for ample liquidity with low interest rates, as
well as high tolerance for moderate inflation, regardless of their
impact on the international financial architecture. The Fed, despite
its claim of independence from politics, has never been free of US
presidential-election politics since its founding. Shortly before his
untimely death, Strong took comfort in his belief that the
reconstruction of Europe was virtually completed and his
internationalist policies had been successful in preserving world
peace. Within a decade of his death, the whole world was aflame with
World War II.
Central
bankers around the world nowadays may not know about Marriner S
Eccles, the president of tiny First National Bank of Ogden, Utah, who
became nationally famous through his successful effort to save his bank
from collapse in the late summer of 1931. Eccles defused the panic of
depositors outside of his bank by announcing that his bank would stay
open until all depositors were paid. He also instructed his tellers to
count every small bill and check every signature to slow the prospect
of his bank running out of cash. A mostly empty armored car carrying
all First National's puny reserves from the Federal Reserve Bank in
Salt Lake City arrived conspicuously while Eccles announced that there
was plenty of money left where it came from, which was true except for
the fact that none of it belonged to First National. The crowd's
confidence in First National was re-established and Eccles' bank
survived on a misleading statement that would have been considered
criminally fraudulent in a vigorous investigation.
Eccles was
a quintessential frontier entrepreneur of the US West and
politically a Western Republican. Beginning with timber and sawmill
operations, his family's initial capital came in the form of labor and
raw material. He learned from his father, an illiterate who immigrated
from Scotland in 1860, that the way to remain free was to avoid
becoming indebted to the Northeastern banks, which were in turn much
indebted to British capital. Among Eccles' assets of railroads, mines,
construction companies and farm businesses was a chain of local banks
in the West. Immersed in an atmosphere of US populism that was critical
of unregulated capitalism and Northeastern "money trusts", Eccles
viewed himself as an ethical capitalist who succeeded through his hard
works and wits, free of oppression from big business trusts and
government interference. A Mormon polygamist, the elder Eccles had two
wives and 21 children, which provided him with considerable human
capital in the labor-short West. The young Eccles, at age 22 and with
only a high-school education, had to assume the responsibilities of his
father when the latter died suddenly. The Eccles construction company
built the gigantic Boulder Dam, begun in 1931 and completed in 1936,
renamed from Hoover Dam in the midst of the Depression and re-renamed
Hoover Dam in 1941.
The market
collapse of 1929 caught the inner-directed Eccles in a state
of bewilderment and despair. Through eclectic reading based on common
sense, he came to a startling awareness: that despite his father's
conservative Scottish teachings on the importance of saving,
individuals and companies and even banks, ever optimistic in their own
future, tended to contribute to aggregate supply expansion to end up
with overcapacity through excessive savings for investment. It was
obvious to Eccles that the problem of the 1930s was that too much money
had been channeled into savings and too little into spending. This new
awareness, like Saint Paul's vision on the way to Damascus, led Eccles
to a radical conclusion that contradicted all that his conservative
father had taught him.
From direct
experience, Eccles realized that bankers like himself, by
doing what seemed sound on an individual basis, by calling in loans and
refusing new lending, only contributed to the financial crisis. He saw
from direct experience the evidence of market failure. He concluded
that to get out of the depression, government intervention, something
he had been taught was evil, was necessary to place purchasing power in
the hands of the public which, together with the economy and the
financial system, was in dire need of it. In the industrial age, the
maldistribution (excessively unequal) of income and the excessive
savings for capital investment always lead to the masses exhausting
their purchasing power, unable to sustain the benefits of mass
production that such savings brought.
Mass
consumption is required by mass production. But mass consumption
requires a fair distribution of new wealth as it is currently produced
(not accumulated wealth) to provide mass purchasing power. By denying
the masses necessary purchasing power, capital denies itself of the
very demand that would justify its investment in new production. Credit
can extend purchasing power but only until the credit runs out, which
would soon occur without the support of adequate income.
Eccles'
epiphany was his realization that Calvinist thrifty
individualism does not work in a modern industrial economy. Eccles
rejected the view of his fellow bankers that depressions are natural
phenomena and that in the long run the destruction they wreak are
healthy and that government intervention only postpones the needed
elimination of the weak and unfit, thereby in the long run weakening
the whole system through the support for the survival of the unfit.
Eccles pragmatically saw that money is not neutral, and it has an
economic function independent of ownership. Money serves a social
purpose if it circulates through transactions and investments, and is
socially harmful if it is hoarded in idle savings, no matter who owns
it. Liquidity is the only measure of the usefulness of money. The
penchant for capital preservation on the part of those who have surplus
money has a natural tendency to reduce liquidity in times of deflation
and economic slowdown.
The
solution is to start the money flowing again by directing the money
not toward those who already have a surplus of it in relation to their
consumptive needs, but to those who have not enough. Giving more money
to those who already have too much would take more money out of
circulation into idle savings and prolong the depression. The solution
is to give money to the most needy, who will spend it immediately. The
only institution that can do this transfer of money for the good of the
system is the federal government, which can issue or borrow money
backed by the full faith and credit of the nation, and put it in the
hands of the masses, who would spend it immediately, thus creating
needed demand. Transfer of money through employment is not the same of
transfer of wealth. Deficit financing of fiscal expenditure is the only
way to inject money and improve liquidity in a stalled economy. Thus
Eccles promoted a limited war on poverty and unemployment, not on moral
but on utilitarian grounds.
Now, the
interesting thing is that Eccles, who never attended
university nor studied economics formally, articulated his pragmatic
conclusions in speeches a good three years before Keynes wrote his
epoch-making The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money
(1936). John Galbraith in his Money: Whence It Came, Where It Went
(1975) explained: "The effect of The General Theory was to
legitimize ideas that were in circulation." With scientific logic and
precision, Keynes made crackpot ideas like those promoted by Eccles
respectable in learned circles, even though Keynes himself was
considered a crackpot by New York Fed president Benjamin Strong as late
as 1927.
In one
single testimony in 1933, Eccles in his salt-of-the-earth manner
convinced an eager US Congress of his new economic principle and
outlined a specific agenda for how the federal government could save
the economy by spending more money on unemployment relief, public
works, agricultural allotment, farm-mortgage refinancing, settlement of
foreign war debts, etc. Eccles also proposed structural systemic reform
for achieving long-term stability: federal insurance for bank deposits,
minimum wage standards, compulsory retirement pension schemes, in fact,
the core program that came to be known as the New Deal. Eccles also
helped launched the era of liberal credits, through government
guarantee mortgages and interest subsidies, making middle-class and
low-income home ownership a reality. It was not a plan to do away with
capitalism as much as it was to save capitalism from itself.
Eccles also
rescued the Federal Reserve System from institutional
disgrace. For this, the Fed building in Washington has since been named
after him. The evolution of political economy models in the early
1930s, a crucial period of change in the supervision and regulation of
the financial sector, can be clearly seen in the opposing policies of
the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations. It resulted in a change of
focus in the Federal Reserve Board from orthodox sound money
initiatives to a heterodox Keynesian outlook, and the push toward
centralizing the monetary powers of the Federal Reserve System at the
Board, away from the regional Federal Reserve Banks.
With
support from Roosevelt, despite bitter opposition from big money
center banks, Eccles personally designed the legislation that reformed
the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States
founded by Congress in 1913 (Glass-Owen Federal Reserve Act), to
provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable
monetary and financial/banking system. An important founding objective
of the original Federal Reserve System had been to fight inflation by
controlling the money supply through setting the short-term interest
rate, known as the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), and bank reserve ratios. By
1915, the Fed had regulatory control over half of the nation's banking
capital and by 1928 about 80 percent. The Banking Act of 1935 designed
by Eccles modified the Federal Reserve Act by stripping the 12 district
Federal Reserve Banks of their autonomous privileges and veto powers
and concentrated monetary policy power in the seven-member Board of
Governors in Washington. Eccles served as chairman for 14 years while
he continued to function as an inner-circle policy maker in the White
House. The Fed under Eccles had no pretension of political
independence. Galbraith described the Fed under Eccles as "the center
of Keynesian evangelism in Washington".
The term
"monetary policy" as used by the Fed nowadays refers to the
actions undertaken by a central bank to influence the availability and
cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. The
Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Federal Reserve responsibility for
setting monetary policy.
The Federal
Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy: open
market operations, the discount rate, and bank reserve requirements.
The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for
the discount rate and bank reserve requirements, and the Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for open market operations, with
transactions handled by the New York Fed.
Bank
reserve requirements are the amount of funds that a depository
institution must hold in reserve against specified deposit liabilities.
Within limits specified by law, the Board of Governors has sole
authority over changes in reserve requirements. Depository institutions
must hold reserves in the form of vault cash or deposits with Federal
Reserve Banks. The dollar amount of a depository institution's reserve
requirement is determined by applying the reserve ratios specified in
the Federal Reserve Board's Regulation D to an institution's reservable
liabilities. Reservable liabilities consist of net transaction
accounts, non-personal time deposits, and eurocurrency liabilities.
Since 1992, non-personal time deposits and eurocurrency liabilities
have had a reserve ratio of zero. The reserve ratio on net transaction
accounts depends on the amount of net transaction accounts at the
depository institution. The Garn-St Germain Act of 1982 exempted the
first $2 million of reservable liabilities from reserve requirements.
This "exemption amount" is adjusted each year according to a formula
specified by the act. The amount of net transaction accounts subject to
a reserve requirement ratio of 3 percent was set under the Monetary
Control Act of 1980 at $25 million. This "low reserve tranche" is also
adjusted each year. Net transaction accounts in excess of the low
reserve tranche are currently reservable at 10 percent.
Using these
three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for,
and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal
Reserve Banks and in this way alters the FFR. The FFR is the interest
rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal
Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Changes in the FFR
trigger a chain of market events that affect other short-term interest
rates, foreign-exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of
money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables,
including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.
The FOMC
consists of 12 members, comprising the seven members of the
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining 11 Reserve
Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The
rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one
Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond;
Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis,
Kansas City, and San Francisco. Non-voting Reserve Bank presidents
attend the meetings of the committee, participate in the discussions,
and contribute to the committee's assessment of the economy and policy
options.
The FOMC
holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these
meetings, the committee reviews economic and financial conditions,
determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the
risks to the economic outlook, based on forecasts prepared by the Fed
staff that are kept secret for five years. The committee's policy
decisions are undertaken to foster the long-run objectives of price
stability and sustainable economic growth, the definitions of which are
constantly affected by the latest theories of monetary economics.
To this
day, using the tools of monetary policy, the Fed affects the
volume of money and credit and their price - interest rates. In this
way, it influences employment, output, and the general level of prices.
Commercial banks, despite their initial opposition to the National
Banking Act of 1863, enacted during the Civil War, have benefited from
double-layer protection: the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) and
Fed discount lending. Non-interest-bearing checking accounts were
another subsidy for the commercial banks prescribed by law at the
expense of depositors. The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which was
finally repealed in 1999 after almost seven decades, separated
investment banking from commercial banking and forbade banks from
participating in a whole range of other financial services. The repeal
of Glass-Steagall has been identified as a key factor behind current
bank scandals of conflicts of interest and their unsavory role in
widespread corporate fraud.
The Federal
Reserve Act of 1913 defines the goals of monetary policy.
It specifies that, in conducting monetary policy, the Fed and its FOMC
should seek "to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment,
stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". In the past
three decades, with the ascendency of monetarism, the central bank has
increasingly focused primarily on achieving price stability by an
interest-rate policy that allows unemployment to fluctuate. A sound
money bias is now justified by the claim that a stable level of prices
is the condition most conducive to maximum sustainable output and
employment and to moderate long-term interest rates; in such
circumstances, the prices of goods, materials, and services are
undistorted by inflation and thus can serve as clearer signals and
guides for the efficient allocation of resources. This is despite the
fact that the boom-and-bust business cycle continues to plaque the
economy. Also, a background of stable prices is thought to encourage
saving and, indirectly, capital formation because it prevents the
erosion of asset values by unanticipated inflation. This view of
neglect-on-demand management has led to the precarious situation of
overcapacity and speculative bubble we are facing today.
The concept
of a natural rate of unemployment is a key contribution by
monetarism to modern macroeconomics. Its use originated with Milton
Friedman's 1968 Presidential Address to the American Economic
Association in which he argued that there is no long-run tradeoff
between inflation and unemployment: as the economy adjusts to any
average rate of inflation, unemployment returns to its "natural" rate.
Higher inflation brings no benefit in terms of lower average
unemployment, nor does lower inflation involve any cost in terms of
higher average unemployment. Instead, the microeconomic structure of
labor markets and household and firm decisions affecting labor supply
and demand determine the natural rate of unemployment. If monetary
policy cannot affect the natural rate, then its appropriate role is to
control inflation and, in the short run, help stabilize the economy
around the natural rate. Doing so would be consistent with maintaining
low and stable inflation.
A second
important unemployment rate generally accepted by monetarist
economists is the "Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment", or
NAIRU. This is the unemployment rate consistent with maintaining stable
inflation. According to standard neo-classical orthodox macroeconomic
theory enshrined in most undergraduate textbooks of economics,
inflation will tend to rise if the unemployment rate falls below the
natural rate. Conversely, when the unemployment rate rises above the
natural rate, inflation tends to fall. Thus, the natural rate and the
NAIRU are often viewed as two names for the same economic phenomenon,
providing an important benchmark for gauging the state of the business
cycle, the outlook for future inflation, and the appropriate stance of
monetary policy, identifying full employment and inflation are partners
in economic crime, based on the assumption that the value of humans is
inversely proportional to the value of money. In other words, money
exists not to serve the welfare of people, but rather, people must be
sacrificed to serve the stability of money. This explains why Paul
Volcker, the US central banker widely credited with ending inflation in
the early 1980s by administering wholesale financial bloodletting on
the US economy, quipped lightheartedly that "central bankers are
brought up pulling legs off of ants".
While the
two terms are often viewed as synonymous, the natural rate is
the unemployment rate that would be observed once short-run cyclical
factors have played themselves out. Because wages and prices adjust
sluggishly for social or legal reasons, the natural rate can be viewed
as the unemployment rate when wages have had time to adjust to balance
labor demand and supply. The NAIRU is the unemployment rate consistent
with steady inflation in the near term, say, over the next 12 months.
The average
long-run unemployment rate measured in the United States
since 1961 is 6.09 percent, and during the 1980s and early 1990s, most
economists placed the natural rate quite near that, in the 6-6.5
percent range. NAIRU has been subject to much criticism, yet it
continues to appear in policy discussions. NAIRU or the natural rate of
unemployment would be less obscene if the unemployment were not
concentrated on the same group of people. But structural unemployment
tends to create a permanent unemployed class, institutionalizing social
injustice as a structural aspect of the economy.
The central
bank, by adopting the natural rate of unemployment or NAIRU
as a component of monetary policy, is condemning 6 percent of the labor
force to perpetual involuntary unemployment. It seems self-evident that
the population has a natural right not to be forced to be part of this
6 percent of unfortunate souls in the workforce. A natural rate of
unemployment flies in the face of US political culture. The
"inalienable rights" of all people (not some people) to
life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness is a concept not compatible
with chronic involuntary unemployment caused by government policy,
aimed at protecting the value of money at the expense of a particular
segment of the working class. One is reminded of the Declaration of
Indepence: "... to secure these rights, governments [of which the
privately owned central bank claims to be part] are instituted among
men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, that
whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it
is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it ..."
No worker
has given any central bank his or her consent to be
involuntarily unemployed so that the value of money can be preserved.
The right to gainful employment in an industrial society where
employment opportunities are systemically determined comes from this
simple and direct relationship between the governed and the government.
It is as sacrosanct as the right to vote. Governments that cannot
guarantee full employment simply cannot legitimately claim the right to
govern.
Full
employment being defined as a level with 4 percent structural
unemployment is an official policy of the Fed, as defined by the Full
Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, known as the
Humphrey-Hawkins Act. The act introduces the term "full employment" as
a policy goal, although the content of the bill had been watered down
before passage by snake-oil economics to consider 4 percent
unemployment as structural; and now full employment is defined as at or
above that level, currently around 6 percent. Any level near or below
that is deemed economically inconsistent, due to its impact on
inflation (causing wages to rise! - a big no-no), thus only increasing
unemployment down the road. Tragically, aside from being morally
offensive, this definition of full employment is not even good
economics. It distorts real deflation as nominal low inflation and
widens the gap between nominal interest rate and real interest rate,
allowing demand constantly to fall behind supply.
Humphrey-Hawkins
has been described as the last legislative gasp of
Keynesianism's doomed effort by liberal senator Hubert Humphrey to
refocus on an official policy against unemployment. Alas, most of the
progressive content of the law had been thoroughly vacated before
passage. The one substantive reform provision: requiring the Fed to
make public its annual target range for growth in the three monetary
aggregates: the three Ms, namely M1 = currency in circulation,
commercial bank demand deposits, NOW (negotiable order of withdrawal)
and ATS (auto transfer from savings), credit-union share drafts,
mutual-savings-bank demand deposits, non-bank traveler's checks; M2 =
M1 plus overnight repurchase agreements issued by commercial banks,
overnight eurodollars, savings accounts, time deposits under $100,000,
money market mutual shares; M3 = M2 plus time deposits over $100,000,
term repo agreements.
In 2000,
when the Humphrey-Hawkins legislation requiring the Fed to set
target ranges for money-supply growth expired, the Fed announced that
it was no longer setting such targets, because money-supply growth does
not provide a useful benchmark for the conduct of monetary policy.
However, the Fed said too that "the FOMC believes that the behavior of
money and credit will continue to have value for gauging economic and
financial conditions. Moreover, M2, adjusted for changes in the price
level, remains a component of the Index of Leading Indicators, which
some market analysts use to forecast economic recessions and
recoveries."
The Fed
chairman is required to testify before both the House and the
Senate to explain these goals and any deviant from the targets. Thus
monetarism has now gained center stage, through the televised hearing
on current chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony, riding on the
legislative carcass of fading Keynesianism. Twice a year, the nation,
and indeed the world, holds its breath waiting for the cryptic
deliberations of Greenspan on his views on where the economy had been
going and why and where he wants it to go. This ritual of esoteric
transparence is neutralized by the cat-and-mouse game that the FOMC
does with the market with its closely guarded secret on its FFR target
until 2:12 pm on the day of its meeting. And its staff forecast on the
economy on which the FFR target is derived is kept secret for a period
of five years. It is a strange way to shoot for market stability, by
institutionalizing policy surprises and keeping forecast analysis
secret.
The US
economy now sits on top of the pyramid of a globalized economy
wielding the fearsome sword of dollar hegemony, sucking wealth from the
rest of the world. Economic policy in the United States exerts a major
influence on production, employment, and prices worldwide in what
Greenspan calls US finance hegemony. The dollar, a fiat currency of the
world's most heavily indebted nation that is most used in international
transactions, constitutes more than half of other countries' official
foreign-exchange reserves. A handful of US banks abroad and foreign
banks in the United States monopolize a globalized international
financial market. The policies and activities of the Fed control the
globalized international economy. Thus, in deciding on the appropriate
monetary policy for achieving basic economic goals, the Fed Board of
Governors and the FOMC consider the record of US international
transactions, movements in foreign-exchange rates, and other
international economic developments, including war and economic
sanctions, which are really economic warfare. And in the area of bank
supervision and regulation, innovations in international banking
require continual assessments of and modifications in the Fed's
orientation, procedures, and regulations. The development of structured
finance and the Fed's reluctance to regulate needed disclosure and
management of risk associated with derivatives trading, particularly
over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, which are traded off exchanges
directly between counterparties, has made transparency an illusion. Not
only is the economy distorted by a debt bubble, it is also distorted by
an invisible bubble.
Not only do
Fed policies shape and get shaped by international
developments, the US central bank also participates directly in
international markets, being both market regulator and market
participant, with inevitable conflict of interest. The Fed undertakes
foreign-exchange transactions in cooperation with the US Treasury,
compromising its "independence" in deference to national-security
concerns. These transactions, and similar ones by foreign central banks
involving dollars, may be facilitated by reciprocal currency (swap)
arrangements that have been established between the Fed and the central
banks of other countries.
US monetary
policy actions influence exchange rates directly. Thus, the
dollar's foreign-exchange value is one of the channels through which US
monetary policy affects the US economy. In theory, when Fed actions
raise US interest rates, the foreign-exchange value of the dollar
should rise. An increase in the foreign-exchange value of the dollar,
in turn, would raise the foreign price of US export goods traded on
world markets and lower the price of goods imported into the US. These
developments could lower output and price levels in the US economy.
This may lead to a US trade deficit. But low-price imports would help
reduce US inflation, allowing the Fed to lower interest rates. If the
low-cost import is used as part of a US product, it may lower the
export price of that US-made product, neutralizing the adverse impact
of a strong dollar.
An increase
in interest rates in a foreign country, in contrast, could
raise worldwide demand for assets denominated in that country's
currency and thereby reduce the dollar's value in terms of that
currency. US output and price levels would tend to increase in
directions just opposite of when US interest rates rise. But high US
interest rates attract investment into US financial assets, producing a
capital account surplus.
Therefore,
in formulating monetary policy, the Board of Governors and
the FOMC draw upon information about and analysis of international as
well as US domestic influences. Changes in public policies or in
economic conditions abroad and movements in international variables
that affect the US economy, such as exchange rates, must be evaluated
in assessing the stance of US monetary policy. The Fed also works with
other agencies of the US government to conduct international financial
policy, participates in various international organizations and forums,
and is in almost continuous contact with other central banks on
subjects of mutual concern, all to maintain what Greenspan proudly
calls US financial hegemony. In other words, the free market is a mere
figment of the conservatives' imagination and a propaganda slogan of
neo-liberals. Central banking is the biggest private financial monopoly
with governmental power in the world economy.
In the
1980s, recognizing their growing economic interdependence, the
United States and the other major industrial countries intensified
their efforts to consult and cooperate on macroeconomic policies. The
Plaza Accord in 1985 forced Japan to raise the value the yen to reduce
its trade surplus with the US. At the 1986 Tokyo Economic Summit,
formal procedures to improve the coordination of policies and
multilateral surveillance of economic performance were agreed upon
among the Group of Seven (G7) industrialized nations. The Fed works
with the US Treasury in coordinating international policy, particularly
when, as has been the norm since the late 1970s, they intervene
together in currency markets to influence the external value of the
dollar.
Using the
forum provided by the Bank for International Settlements
(BIS) in Basel, Switzerland, the Fed works with representatives of the
central banks of other countries on mutual concerns regarding monetary
policy, international financial markets, banking supervision and
regulation, and payments systems. (The chairman of the Board of
Governors also represents the US central bank on the Board of Directors
of the BIS.) Representatives of the Federal Reserve participate in the
activities of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on which the US
has a controlling vote, discuss macroeconomic, financial-market, and
structural issues with representatives of other industrial countries at
the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in
Paris, and work with central-bank officials of Western Hemisphere
countries at meetings such as that of the Governors of Central Banks of
the American Continent. The dubious policies of the IMF around the
world as an international lender of last resort to the world's troubled
central banks in deep financial crisis have been essentially dictated
by the United States.
The Fed has
conducted foreign-currency operations, the buying and
selling of dollars in exchange for foreign currency, for customers
since the 1950s and for its own account since 1962. These operations
are directed by the FOMC, acting in close cooperation with the US
Treasury, which has overall responsibility for US international
financial policy. The manager of the System Open Market Account at the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York acts as the agent for both the FOMC
and the Treasury in carrying out foreign-currency operations.
The purpose
of Federal Reserve foreign-currency operations has evolved
in response to changes in the international monetary system. The most
important of these changes was the transition in the 1970s from the
Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates to a system of flexible
exchange rates for the dollar in terms of other countries' currencies.
Under the latter system, while the main aim of Fed foreign-currency
operations has been to counter disorderly conditions in exchange
markets through the purchase or sale of foreign currencies (called
intervention operations), primarily in the New York market, the net
effect has often been high market volatility. During some episodes of
downward pressure on the foreign-exchange value of the dollar, the Fed
has purchased dollars (sold foreign currency) and has thereby absorbed
some of the selling pressure on the dollar. Similarly, the Fed may sell
dollars (purchase foreign currency) to counter upward pressure on the
dollar's foreign-exchange value. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
also carries out transactions in the US foreign-exchange market as an
agent for foreign monetary authorities.
Intervention
operations involving dollars could affect the supply of
reserves in the US depository system. A purchase of foreign currency by
the Fed with newly created dollars, for instance, would increase the
supply of reserves. In practice, however, such operations are not
allowed to alter the supply of monetary reserves available to US
depository institutions. That is, interventions are "sterilized"
through open market operations so that they do not lead to a change in
the market for domestic monetary reserves different from that which
would have occurred in the absence of intervention.
The New
Deal did not become fully Keynesian until after the 1937
recession, which most economists have since laid blame on Eccles' Fed
policy of doubling the reserve requirement for commercial banks from
12.5 percent to 25 percent at the same time as the executive branch was
tightening its fiscal policy. Gaining confidence from the recovery of
1935, Eccles permitted the Fed's institutional penchant to be activist
in monetary policy. It was an error late in his career that would
tarnish his earlier reputation as a New Dealer. The 1937 recession
would re-establish monetary-policy passivity for the Fed for decades to
come, until the chairmanship of Paul Volcker and now of Alan Greenspan.
The focus on interest rates instead of stable money supply to stimulate
aggregate demand became the Fed's operational mode for decades after.
The liberal
economists of the Kennedy "New Economics" of the 1960s were
in tune with the political wind of their time, that
fiscal-policy-engineered government deficits were considered
therapeutic to a slowing economy. Expansionist budgetary shortfalls can
be compensated by increased economic activities that enlarge the
revenue base. The pie gets bigger faster than the shrinking slice of
tax take. At its peak, the New Economics managed to bring unemployment
down to 3.5 percent, from 7 percent when president John F Kennedy took
office, and sustained an uninterrupted economic expansion for 106
consecutive months.
However,
this focus by the Fed on interest rates and credit conditions
to accommodate the fiscal policies of the New Economics of Kennedy,
instead of a focus on stable value of money and gradually expanding
money supply, was attacked by Milton Friedman and his monetarist
colleagues of the Chicago School. Besides attacking Keynesian fiscal
policies as producing only ephemeral results, Friedman asserted that
the only effective government influence over the private sector of the
economy was its control of money. The Fed's short-term manipulation of
the money supply was criticized as consistently destabilizing and
damaging. Yet not until mid-1960s was Friedman taken seriously, when
president Lyndon Johnson's Vietnam War spending was sinking the New
Economics. The unraveling of the New Economics that began in 1968 was
caused by the political system's unwillingness to follow Keynesian
rules in good times.
Galbraith
concluded that "Keynesian policy is unavailable for dampening
demand if taxes cannot be increased except under the force majeur
of war and public expenditure cannot be decreased for any reason". The
failure of fiscal policy to slow an overheated economy left it to
monetary policy to do its nasty chore.
Friedman
emerged as the intellectual leader to challenge three decades
of Keynesian supremacy. Wall Street analysts, following Friedman's
theory, find the weekly fluctuation of M1 a more reliable indicator of
economic swings than the slow-changing federal budget. Friedman's 1976
Nobel Price firmly enthroned the rise of monetarism as a mainstream
concept, validated temporarily by recent events.
In 1966,
the consumer price index (CPI) increased by more than 3
percent, the steepest in 15 years. By 1969, the annual price increase
was above 6 percent. Even president Richard Nixon's brief wage-price
controls failed to bring inflation below 3 percent, despite
price-induced shortages in many industries, including toilet seats for
restrooms in new office buildings. The Cold War was still going strong
and there was no globalized trade to supply low-price imports and the
Vietnam War was feeding inflation at home as well as exporting it to
the non-communist world. By 1973, the CPI rose 8.8 percent and the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) embargo and price
hikes pushed the 1974 CPI increase to 12.2 percent. The Fed tightened
money and promptly produced a recession that lasted five months, with
unemployment jumping to 9.1 percent and gross domestic product (GDP)
shrinking by 15 percent. But inflation kept roaring toward double
digits throughout the recession. A fundamental disconnect now
confronted Keynesian theory - inflation and unemployment were moving in
the same direction, which was not supposed to happen. There was plenty
of blame to go around for the inflation, but none of it explained the
high unemployment.
Friedman
offered a simple and plausible alternative: he blamed the Fed
for the inflation when it eased monetary policy over time and for the
unemployment when the Fed tightened abruptly. A new term,
"stagflation", came into common use. Friedman's slogans "money matters"
and "inflation is everywhere and anywhere a monetary phenomenon" became
headlines in the financial and even popular press. Friedman advocated a
fixed expansion of M1 at 3 percent long-term to moderate the runaway
business cycle overstimulated by Keynesian measures.
At its
base, Friedman is against government intervention not merely
because it may be ineffective, but because it is immoral. To him, the
Fed has forgotten its institutional role as a stabilizer of the value
of money, in a quest for power and influence. A strict-money rule, such
as the later Taylor rule, would restore sanity to the Fed. The rule
proposed by John Taylor, now Treasury undersecretary, is that if
inflation is 1 percentage point above the Fed's goal, rates should rise
by 1.5 percentage points, and if an economy's total output is 1
percentage point below its full capacity, rates should fall by half a
percentage point.
Friedman's
criticism of the Fed as protector of its constituent - the
commercial banks - is populist but his willingness to allow the market
to impose high interest rates and to allocate credit only to the
creditworthy is biased toward the rich. It is the syndrome of the
banker who offers umbrellas only when it is not raining. To carry
Friedman's theory to its logical conclusion, there would be no need for
a central bank in truly free financial markets, while the need for a
national bank might be argued on nationalist political grounds.
As
engineered by Eccles, the independence of the Fed is a peculiar,
uniquely American institution. The institutional conflict between the
Treasury and an "independent" Fed has yet to be resolved. Nixon accused
Fed chairman William McChesney Martin of costing him the election loss
to Kennedy, not without reason. As president finally in 1968, Nixon was
to consider himself a Keynesian by proclaiming: "We are all Keynesians
now."
The Fed's
political base is the commercial banks. As more banks
resigned from the Federal Reserve System, the system ran the risk of
being exposed to political attack. The Fed's control of monetary policy
technically requires membership of no more than the 400 largest banks.
Universal membership brought in thousands of small regional and local
banks that were crucial for the Fed's political protection, not for
monetary policy requirement. Since its beginning in 1913, the Fed has
been subjected to criticism that it is a captive institution of the big
banks.
Arthur
Burns, the Fed chairman appointed by Nixon, in trying to ensure
the president's re-election, laid the seed of hyperinflation that left
post-Watergate president Gerald Ford with having to fight inflation
with his ludicrous WIN (Whip Inflation Now) lapel buttons. In hoping to
get reappointed by Jimmy Carter, who defeated Ford as president in
1976, Burns continued to pursue an easy-money monetary policy in the
first two years of the Carter administration. To Burns' disappointment,
G William Miller became chairman of the Fed in 1978 when Burns' term
expired.
Miller,
chief executive officer of Textron, a high-tech defense
contractor, true to the empire-building tendency of a CEO, decided to
halt the membership decline in the Federal Reserve System. Commercial
banks had been electing to withdraw from the Federal Reserve System in
protest of the Fed not paying interest on reserve balances. Banks that
withdrew could place their lower reserves, required by state banking
regulations, in corresponding banks to earn income from securities.
During the
'70s, as hyperinflation pushed up interest rates, the
no-interest hidden "tax" on Federal Reserve member banks became
proportionately more burdensome. Miller decided to pay interest to
member banks for their reserves, over the opposition of Congress, which
considered it another giveaway to the big banks. Not only were the big
banks getting free safety-net protection through emergency borrowing at
the Fed's discount window, they also enjoyed a free check clearing and
payment system from the Fed. Congress thought the banks were pigs for
complaining about the no-interest "tax" since the tax was lower than
user fees for services the banks received. The effective tax rate in
the 1980s for financial institutions was only 5.8 percent, compared
with 34.1 percent for retail, 24.5 percent for electronics, 16.4
percent for aerospace, and 10.9 percent for utilities.
Senator
William Proxmire, a Democrat from Wisconsin who chaired the
Senate Banking Committee, and Representative Henry Reuss, his
counterpart in the House, answered Fed interest payments with the
Monetary Control Act of 1980 (a misnomer, since its real effect was to
decontrol, just as the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978
actually legitimized structural unemployment), enacted just when the
Fed pushed interest rates to historical peaks, requiring all depository
institutions, members and non-members alike, to maintain reserves with
the Fed. Ostentatiously, since the Fed now paid interest on deposited
reserves, the small banks ought at least to get the benefits of Fed
services and protection and bypass the fee-paying correspondence
relations with big banks.
It was
amazing that the Fed was able to get a Congress increasingly
hostile to government regulation to consolidate the Fed's institutional
base at a time when the Fed was imposing intrusive conditions in the
private economy. The rationale was based only marginally on economics
and heavily on politics. Fed membership was a non-issue as far as
monetary control was concerned, and governor Henry Wallich, the Fed's
most scholarly economist, said as much publicly. The legislation
favored the Fed's main constituent in the private sector, the large
money center banks, forcing all other regional and local financial
institutions to fall in line and accept the terms that are most
operative for the big internationalist banks.
The Fed's
legislative victory was delivered on the back of a larger
issue - the deregulation of finance. In companion legislation, Congress
repealed virtually all of the remaining government limits on interest
rates and regulation on lending that had existed since the New Deal,
much as the enactment of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) in November
1999 in effect repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, the long-standing
prohibitions on the mixing of banking with securities or insurance
businesses, and thus permitting "broad banking". The price of money was
free at last to seek its "natural" equilibrium in the market place.
The prime
rate rose above 15 percent in early 1980 when the
deregulation legislation reached its final stage. The Democratic
Congress voted overwhelmingly for a package that condemned borrowers to
high cost and favored lenders with high returns, by arguing that the
benefit of high interest on pension accounts justified the high cost of
mortgage payments. In other words, as Pogo the cartoon character said:
"The enemies, they are us." The populist Regulation Q, which regulated
for several decades limits and ceilings on bank and savings-and-loan
(S&L) interest, was phased out. Banks were allowed to pay interest
on checking account - the NOW accounts, to lure depositors back from
the money markets. S&Ls' traditional interest-rate advantage was
removed, to provide a "level playing field", forcing them to take the
same risk as commercial banks to survive. Congress also lifted
restrictions on S&Ls' commercial lending, instead of the
traditional home mortgages, which promptly got the whole industry into
trouble that would soon required an unprecedented government bailout of
depositors with tax money. But the developers who made billions were
allowed to keep their profits. State usury laws were unilaterally
suspended by an act of Congress in a flagrant intrusion on state
rights.
The
political coalition of converging powerful interests was evident.
Virulent high inflation had damaged the holders of financial wealth,
including small savers, created by a period of benign low inflation
earlier, so that even progressives felt something has to be done to
protect the middle class. The solution was to export inflation to
low-labor-cost areas around the world, taming domestic inflation with
the export of jobs and the domestic inflation devil - US wages.
Neo-liberalism was born with the twin midwives of sound money and free
financial markets, disguising economic neo-imperialism as market
fundamentalism.
There was
even a devious argument that universal Fed membership serves
to dilute the institutional bias of the Fed toward big banks.
Commercial banks of course argued for free market competition when they
knew very well that predatory acquisition rather than fair competition
was what unregulated markets sustain. Labor, small business and small
local banks and S&Ls complained, to no avail. US labor, unlike its
European counterparts, focused union contracts on wages and benefits on
a shrinking unionized workforce while management shifted jobs overseas
wholesale with the support of the internationalist banks as a painless
way to control domestic inflation, in the name of free trade. Many Fed
economists, Volcker included, actually knew that financial deregulation
with the elimination of interest-rate ceilings would weaken the Fed's
control over expansion of credit.
To gain
support for the Monetary Control Act of 1980, the Fed offered
member and non-member banks that, under universal membership, the
existing levels of reserve would be lowered for every bank. Reserves
required for demand deposits, the checking accounts that represented
the core of bank funds, were reduced from 16.25 to 12 percent. This
would mean a substantial loss of revenue for the Fed. The Fed had been
paying a handsome dividend to the Treasury from surplus income from
reserve holdings invested in government securities over operating
expenses, $9.3 billion in 1979. According to the Board's 1999 Annual
Report, the Federal Reserve System had net income totaling $26.2
billion, which would qualify it as one of the most profitable companies
in the world if the system were a typical corporation. These profits
were distributed as follows: $342 million, or 1.4 percent of the
profits, was paid to member banks as dividends. Another $479 million,
or 1.8 percent, was retained by the 12 Reserve Banks. The balance of
$25.4 billion, or 96.9 percent of the profits, was paid to the
Treasury.
The Fed
started to charge banks for its services when the new reserve
rules were fully phased in. The larger money center banks welcomed this
development since they intended to provide their own service system for
banks in competition with the Fed, and with the Fed charging a fee, it
would make it easier for the big banks to lure away customers. To get
the endorsement of the American Bankers Association, the Fed agreed to
drop reserve requirements on time and saving deposits. This concession
meant a vast benefit for the big banks whose balance sheet depends on
large-denomination CDs (certificates of deposit).
Next:
Still
more on the US experience
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