World Trade Needs a
Global Cartel for Labor (OLEC)
Part I: Background and Theory
By
Henry C.K. Liu
This series appeared in Asia Times
in February-March 2006
The global economy as currently
constituted does not operate
with a free market by any stretch of imagination, the propaganda of
neo-liberal free traders notwithstanding. For
this reason, there is a need for a global
cartel for labor.
Three related facts combine to make the global market not
free. The first fact is that global
trade is carried out under an international finance architecture based
on dollar
hegemony, which is a peculiar arrangement in which the dollar, a fiat
paper
currency backed by nothing of intrinsic value, can be printed at will
by the
US, and only the US, thus making export for dollars a game of shipping
real
wealth overseas for paper that is only usable in the dollar economy and
useless
domestically in all other non-dollar countries. Key commodities, such
as oil,
are denominated in dollars primarily because of US geopolitical prowess. Most economies need dollars to buy imported
oil,
but the exporting economies buy much more oil than they otherwise need
domestically merely to satisfy the energy needs of their export
sectors. The
net monetized trade surplus from exports in the form of dollars, after
paying
for dollar-denominated oil and other imports, remains useless in the
domestic
markets of the exporting economies. Thus dollar hegemony reduces the
non-dollar
exporting economies to an absurd position of the more dollars from
trade
surplus they accumulate, the poorer they become domestically. This absurd position is further exacerbated
if domestic wages are kept low by export policy in order to compete for
more
global market share to earn dollars. It is a case of starving one’s own
children to provide free child labor to serve ice cream to outsiders. It is bad enough to exchange valuable goods
for fiat paper; it is outright foolhardiness to keep domestic wages low
merely
to earn fiat paper that cannot even be spent in one’s own economy.
The second fact that makes the global market not free comes
from neoclassical economics’ flawed definition of labor productivity as
the
amount of market value a worker can produced with a given unit of
capital
investment. Since according to monetary economics, market value, which
is
expressed as price, needs to remain stable to prevent inflation, labor
productivity in financial terms can only be increased with declining
wages per
unit of capital. Further, price
competition for market share directly depresses wages. Even if wages
can at
times rise in monetary terms, the ratio of wages to the market value of
production
must constantly fall in order for increased labor productivity to be
monetized
as profit. Thus profits from trade under
this flawed definition of productivity ultimately can only be derived
from
falling wages. The concept of surplus
value within the context of the labor theory of value as explained by
Marx
embodies this structural compulsion. Yet Marx was speaking of the
structural
effect of fair profits, not the obscene profits that are now the norm
from
sweatshops in the deregulated global market. Neoclassical economics
replaces
the labor theory of value with the theory of marginal utility in which
price is
defined as the intersection of supply and demand in a free market. William Stanley Jevon (Theory of Political
Economy 1817), Carl Menger (Principles of Economics 1871),
and Leon
Walrus (Elements of Pure Economics 1877) promulgated the
marginal
utility, neoclassical revolution. Yet today’s allegedly free market
effectively
deprives labor of any pricing power over its market value. Since
capitalism
does not recognize any ceiling for fair profit, always celebrating the
tenet of
the more the merrier, it must by implication oppose any floor for fair
wages,
to validate the opposite tenet of the lower the merrier. The terms of
global
trade then are based on seeking the lowest wages for the highest
profit, rather
than fair wages for fair profit. This is the linkage between
neo-liberal
capitalistic globalization and wage arbitrage, both in the domestic
labor
market and across national borders. Yet in a consumer-based global
market
economy, low wages lead directly into overcapacity because consumer
demand
depends on high wages. The adverse effect on consumer demand from the
quest for
maximum profit is the critical internal contradiction of the
deregulated capitalistic
market economy.
The third fact that makes the global market not free is that
while financial globalization facilitates unrestricted cross-border
mobility of
capital around the globe, obdurate immobility of workers across
national
borders continues to be maintained through government restrictions on
immigration.
Free trade advocates, from Adam Smith (1723-1790) to David Ricardo
(1772-1823),
in considering the relationship between capital and labor, treat the
mobility
disparity between capital and labor as a natural state, never
entertaining that
it is a mere political idiosyncrasy. This “natural” immobility of labor
might
have been reality in the 18th Century, but it is no longer
natural
in the jet-age global economy of the 21st Century in which
mobility
has become a natural characteristic. Labor immobility deprives labor of
pricing
power in a global market by preventing workers to go to where they are
needed
most and where market wages are highest, while capital is free to go
where it
is need most and where return on investment is highest.
This econ-political regime against labor
mobility, coupled with unrestrained cross-border mobility of capital,
maintains
a location-bound wage disparity that has created profit opportunities
for
cross-border wage arbitrage, in a downward spiral for all wages
everywhere.
Greenspan Supports
More Immigration for the US Economy
In January 2000, when the US unemployment rate reached 4.1%
(4.7% in January 2006), the low end of structural unemployment without
wage-pushed
inflation, employers found it difficult to fill low-pay agricultural,
meat and
poultry packing and health services jobs, as well as high-pay high-tech
information
technology and software design jobs. The problem led the Federal
Reserve to
become concerned about possible wage-pushed inflation. It forced
lawmakers to
sponsor legislation which would make it easier for farmers, meat
processors,
and high-tech industries to import temporary workers through exemptions
in immigration
restrictions. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that increasing
immigrant numbers in areas where workers are difficult to find could
relieve
stress in the job market and therefore wage-pushed inflation.
Consistent with
the Fed’s warped mission of maintaining structural unemployment to
contain
inflation, Greenspan said: “Aggregative demand is putting very
significant
pressures on an ever-decreasing available supply of unemployed labor.
The one
obvious means that one can use to offset that is expanding the number
of people
we allow in. Reviewing our immigration laws in the context of the type
of
economy which we will be enjoying in the decade ahead is clearly on the
table
in my judgment.” Congress showed no enthusiasm for Greenspan’s
suggestion of
permanent immigration liberalization along with global finance
liberalization.
Farm growers in the US had hoped to increase the number of
immigrant farm workers by attaching a provision in their interest to
the highly
favored high-technology industry's legislation to increase the number
of
high-tech immigrant workers. In 2000, high-tech immigration legislation
seemed
likely to pass Congress until the Clinton administration began
attaching
legislative riders that would give Latin American refuges legal
permanent
residency. In addition, the Clinton administration wanted to grant
amnesty to a
large number of illegal immigrants, most of whom were Hispanics. This
political
maneuvering stopped the pending high-tech legislation dead in its
tracks
because Republicans feared that the Democrats were attaching such
legislative
riders in order to gain support from the large number of Hispanic
voters. The shortage of high-tech workers
forced the
industry to move operations overseas, at first not to save money on
wages, but
to find available workers. The labor unions reacted to immigration with
traditional phobia, viewing it as a development that would keep wages
low,
rather than a new source for reversing the steady decline in
membership. Yet employment data showed
that high-tech
immigrant workers did not lower wages during the high-tech boom in the
US. What eventually lowered high-tech
wages in
the US was overcapacity resulting from overinvestment caused by
excessive debt
and inadequate consumer demand resulting from stagnant wages. After its collapse, the US high-tech sector
recovered by outsourcing manufacturing jobs to low-wage countries,
leaving
consumer demand to be sustained by an expanding debt-driven asset
bubble.
Three years later, Greenspan took up another argument on
behalf of immigration: this time in response to the actuary dilemma
facing
social security. On February 27, 2003, Greenspan, testifying before the
Senate
Special Committee on Aging, chaired by Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID),
described the
economic impact of an aging US population, which would lead to slow
natural
population growth that would result in slow economic growth,
diminishing growth
in the labor force, and an increase in the ratio of the retired elderly
to the
working-age population. By 2030, the growth of the US workforce will
slow from
1% to ½%, according to census projections cited by Greenspan. At
the same time,
the percentage of the population over 65 years old will rise from 13%
to 20%.
Greenspan described how the aging population would have significant
adverse
fiscal effects. “In particular, it makes our social security and
Medicare
programs unsustainable in the long run, short of a major increase in
immigration rates, a dramatic acceleration in productivity growth well
beyond
historic experience, a significant increase in the age of eligibility
for
benefits, or the use of general revenues to fund benefits,” Greenspan
warned.
According to Greenspan, immigration could prove a most potent antidote
for
slowing growth in the working-age population. As the influx of foreign
workers
in response to the tight labor markets of the 1990s showed, immigration
does
respond to labor shortages. An expansion
of labor-force participation by immigrants and the healthy elderly
offers some
offset to an aging population. “Fortunately, the US economy is uniquely
well
suited to make those adjustments” said Greenspan. “Our open labor
markets can
adapt to the differing needs and abilities of our older population. Our
capital
markets can allow for the creation and rapid adoption of new
labor-saving
technologies, and our open society has been receptive to immigrants.
All these
factors put us in a good position to adjust to the [impacts] of an
aging
population.” Short of a major increase
in immigration, economic growth cannot be safely counted upon to
eliminate
deficits and the difficult choices that will be required to restore
fiscal
discipline," said Greenspan’s semiannual report To Congress on monetary
policy , submitted Feb. 11, 2003. Also,
immigrants tend to have higher birth rate than native-born citizens.
This would
moderate the aging population trend.
Still, anti-immigration phobia continue to rise in the US,
as reflected by CNN personality Lou Dobbs, recipient of the 2004 Man of
the
Year Award from The Organization for the Rights of American Workers for
his
tilted coverage of the national debate on jobs, global trade and
outsourcing.
Dobbs was also a recipient of the Eugene Katz Award for Excellence in
the
Coverage of Immigration from the Center for Immigration Studies for his
ongoing
series "Broken Borders," which criticizes US policy on illegal
immigration and the Bush Administration’s “guest worker” program and
proposals
for immigration amnesty, not withstanding that if his crusade should
bear
fruit, there would be no one to clean his broadcast studio every night.
Time is Ripe for a
Global Cartel for Labor
In a world operating under the rules of political economy,
the idea of a global cartel for labor, to be known as Organization of
Labor-intensive Exporting Countries (OLEC), can help to level the
playing field
between capital and labor. It is a timely
political concept with important positive economic implications in this
age of
deregulated finance globalization. In
finance
capitalism, both capital and labor are viewed as mere commodities, not
unlike
other basic commodities, most notably oil. All
commodities command a price in the market
by their sellers
exercising fair pricing power. They do this by withholding supply from
the
market until the price is right and fair. If OPEC (Organization of
Petroleum
Exporting Countries) members can form a global cartel for oil to
control and
raise oil prices in the global market for their collective benefit at
the same
time claiming benefits for the global economy, low-wage manufacture
exporting
countries can also form a similar cartel for global labor to control
and raise
wages worldwide with a long-range strategy that would be good for the
global
economy.
The objectives of OLEC would be to coordinate and unify
labor policies among member countries in order to secure fair, uniform
and
stable prices for labor in the global market and an efficient, economic
and
regular supply of labor to provide a fair return on capital to maximize
growth in
the global economy. The ultimate aim is
to implement a trade regime in which profitability is tied to rising
wages.
Towards these objectives, the successful experience of OPEC can be a
useful
guide. Just as OPEC allows different
grades of oil to command different prices tied to a bench mark, OLEC
will aim
to set a price bench mark for labor around which flexible price ranges
will
reflect factors that affect productivity. The aim is to stop the
downward
spiral of wages caused by predatory wage policies.
OPEC
is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization, created at the Baghdad
Conference on September 10–14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi
Arabia and
Venezuela. The five Founding Members were later joined by eight other
Members:
Qatar (1961); Indonesia (1962); Socialist Peoples Libyan Arab
Jamahiriya
(1962); United Arab Emirates (1967); Algeria (1969); Nigeria (1971);
Ecuador
(1973–1992) and Gabon (1975–1994). Headquartered in Geneva in the first
five
years of its existence, OPEC moved to Vienna on September 1, 1965. Each
member
country selects representatives who choose a governor for their
country. These
governors attend two regular OPEC meetings every year and they also
choose the
OPEC chairman. All decisions are to be unanimous. The OPEC Statutes
identify
the main objective as setting prices of oil and oil products and keep
the price
and supply stable with fair returns to the investors by adjusting
production
rates according to market conditions. OPEC operates as a market-sharing
cartel
within a framework of non-collusive cooperation with imperfect
information. For
the first decade of OPEC history, the transnational oil companies, the so-called
“seven sisters” (Esso, BP, Shell, Gulf, Standard Oil of California,
Texaco and
Mobil) managed to use their overwhelming financial power to
ignore it,
by continuing their decade-old strategy of keeping oil prices low, with
low
royalty to the producer governments to subsidize the advance consumer
economies
while maintaining high corporate profit. In 1947, the price of oil was around
$2.20/barrel, while exporter government taxes were less than 50
cents/barrel
and production costs were between 10 to 20 cents/barrel.
These figures remain relatively constant
until the cartel effects of OPEC took form in the 1970s.
Up to 1973, oil was selling for less than $3
per barrel just before the OPEC oil embargo, a rise of less than 80
cents in 26
years, way behind inflation.
In
1967, during the Six Day War, OPEC member
nations, namely Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Libya, provided financial support
to
Jordan, Egypt and Syria. OPEC also successfully embargoed oil to Israel
and the
countries that supported Israel. In 1970, Libyan leader Muhammar Quadaffi used OPEC’s influence to put
pressure on the other independent Middle Eastern states to increase oil
prices
and raised taxes on oil company incomes and in some cases to
nationalize the
oil companies dominated by foreign joint venture partners. But it was
not until
the 1973 that OPEC began to gain real market power. By 1973, US oil
production
was falling due to rising dependence on low-price oil from the Middle
East. The
oil crisis of the 1970’s was a pricing problem rather than a shortage
problem.
In 1973, a barrel of Arabian crude sold for $3, and in 1980, the price
peaked
at $37 a barrel. In 1978, the “second oil crisis”
was triggered by the Iranian revolution, causing its production to drop
from 6
MMB/D in September 1978 to 2.4 MMB/D by December 1978.
In the 1980’s, OPEC learned from experience that the higher
oil prices of the 1970s decreased demand, stimulated conservation,
encouraged
new exploration and production and quest for alternative energy
sources,
expanding the life span of the oil age. In May 1990, the first Gulf War
caused
a temporary oil shortage. In response to the crisis, OPEC increased
supplies
from fields not affected by the Iraq-Kuwait crisis, stabilizing prices.
After
the 1997 Asian financial crisis, oil fell to below $10. The second Gulf
War
caused oil prices to increased more than six folds to reach above $70
per barrel,
despite US pressure on OPEC to increase production. Few if any market
analysts
currently expect oil to fall below $50 in the foreseeable future. The impact of high oil prices, while
stimulating conservation, has not been fatal to the global economy.
See: The Real
Problems With $50 Oil (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GE26Dj02.html)
OPEC came into existence in 1960, but emerged as an
effective cartel only following Arab Oil embargo which began on October
19-20,
1973 and ended on March 18, 1974. During that period the price for
benchmark
Saudi Light increased from $2.59 in September 1973 to $11.65 in March.
OPEC has
since been setting bottom benchmark prices for its various crudes. Yet
oil
price immediately before the current crisis dipped below $10 after the
Asian
Financial Crisis of 1997 and eventually stabilized around $20. Today, OPEC is the source
of slightly more than a third of the world’s oil supply.
The margin for turning three barrels of crude
oil into two barrels of gasoline and one of heating oil fell to $3.086
a barrel
on February 9, 2006, based on futures prices in New York, the lowest
since June
2003. The profit for turning a barrel of crude into gasoline fell below
$1 a
barrel for the first time since September 1994; the margin plunged from
$3.17
on Sept. 1, 2005. Oil reached a record
$70.85 on Aug. 30, the day after Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the
U.S.
Gulf Coast, wrecking oil platforms, pipelines and refineries, and
cutting
production in the world's largest energy market. Oil
may rise to a record $96 a barrel in
August 2006 when hurricanes typically cut U.S. output, said Mitsui
& Co.,
Japan's second-largest trading company on February 6.
China kicked off the trading of fuel
oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 25 2005 for the
first
time in a decade.
There is a fundamental relationship between wages and
prices. Pricing policies of firms as they are actually practiced in the
real
world, both by cartels such as OPEC in oil, by other commodity
producers, market
leaders in pharmaceuticals, software, communication, and in fact the
price of
money (interest rates), have one thing in common. Pricing policies
across all
these different economic sectors are predicated on the proposition that
price
is seldom, if ever, set by the intersection of supply and demand, as
neo-classical economics textbooks teach. The bottom line is that price
is determined
not by supply and demand but by strategies that aim at optimizing the
long-term
value of assets and political considerations. In fact, a case can be
built that price determines supply and demand, not the other way around.
OPEC pricing is a good example. Because of OPEC, oil prices have become
a key
factor in the global economy. Throughout the history of oil, price has
been set
by highly complex considerations and supply has always been adjusted to
maintain the set price. In pharmaceuticals, price is set neither by
cost nor
demand. The pricing model of any new drug aims at achieving maximum
lifetime
value of the drug that has very little to do with current supply and
demand.
Microsoft's pricing model for Windows has nothing to do with supply and
demand,
or marginal costs, which are close to zero. Telephone charges are
similarly
disconnected from supply and demand, or marginal costs. Even in the
auto
industry, the dinosaur of the old economy, where cost input is high and
discounted return on capital low, pricing is based more on complex
considerations than demand. With 80 percent of autos financed or
leased,
subsidy of financing costs is the name of the game, not sticker price.
Farm
commodities prices are definitely not set by the intersection of supply
and
demand. They are set artificially high by political considerations of
practically all producer governments; and both supply and demand are
artificially distorted to maintain the politically set price. The
general
consensus of mainstream economists on the global steel overcapacity
problem is
to reduce capacity, not to let prices fall.
Price in fact is the most manipulated component in trade. That is the
fundamental flaw of market fundamentalism. Friedrich Hayek's rejection
of
socialist thinking is based on his view that prices are an instrument
of
communication and guidance, which embodies more information than each
market
participant individually processes. Thus Hayek uses the aggregate
defect of
individual misjudgments as the correct judgment. To Hayek, it is
impossible to
bring about the same price-based order based on the division of labor
by any
other means. Similarly, the distribution of incomes based on a vague
concept of
merit or need is impossible. Prices, including the price of labor, are
needed
to direct people to go where they can do the most good. The only
effective
distribution is one derived from market principles. On that basis,
Hayek intellectually
rejects government regulation of market. The
only trouble with this view is that
Hayek's notion of price is a romantic illusion and nowhere practiced.
That was
how the Native Americans sold Manhattan to the Dutch for a handful of
beads
which under modern commercial law would be categorized as a fraudulent
transaction. The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences (Nobel
Prize) was
awarded to Joseph Stiglitz, George Akerlof and A Michael Spence for
"their
analyses of markets with asymmetric information". In his acceptance
press
conference, Stiglitz said, "Market economies are characterized by a
high
degree of imperfections." Further,
and most significantly, Hayek’s argument is predicated on labor being
able to
go where it can do the most good, a precondition that is denied by
immigration
constraints.
The Nature of Cartel
A global
cartel can take on many variant forms with different characteristics
and
impacts on the global market. Although every cartel is unique, from oil
to diamond,
the common attributes of any effective cartel are agreement among
members for
deliberate restraint on supply to the market to achieve a consistently
higher
price than that from predatory competition among sellers with no market
pricing
power. Theoretically, an ideal cartel can act as a monopoly operated by
a
number of separate but related yet independent entities. The
multi-entity
monopoly cartel assumes that it is a cartel authority rather than
individual
cartel members who makes price and supply decisions such that the
cartel as a
whole obtains the maximum possible monopoly revenue and profits from
the
market, and cartel members do not compete with each other but share the
total
profits in a pre-agreed manner. Under these terms, the cartel authority
actually acts as a monopolist, but not necessarily a total monopolist.
OPEC
controls only one third of the world’s oil supply. The marginal cost
curve is
determined by using up the lowest cost area first, regardless of which
member
country the supply area belongs to. Given the market demand curve for
the
cartel’s supply, the cartel authority calculates the marginal revenue
pattern
and equates it to the jointly decided marginal cost curve. The
equilibrium will
set the cartel’s profit-maximizing supply level and the corresponding
monopoly
price. The central determination of price and supply by the cartel
authority
can guarantee maximum profit to the organization as a whole. Under this
framework, the producers with high marginal cost might not produce at
all if
their marginal cost is higher than the cartel’s marginal revenue.
Therefore, a
unanimously accepted profit-share arrangement must be pre-agreed and
post-enforced. However, such a perfect cartel cannot be sustained in
reality by
OPEC which is composed of constituent sovereign nations. The large
producer
(Saudi Arabia) would have to act as the “swing producer”, absorbing the
demand
and supply fluctuations in order to maintain the monopoly price. A cartel for labor would have to operate
under rules responsive to the unique problems of labor markets, the
details of
which will have be workout depending of the membership make-up and the
negotiated outcome among the members. But
the prospect of common benefit will insure
that the appropriate
operational mechanics can be worked out. For OLEC, China and India can
be swing
suppliers to absorb labor supply and demand fluctuations to maintain
stable and
rising global wages for the common benefit of all OLEC members.
A
market-sharing cartel is one in which the members decide
on the share of the market that each is allotted as a
cartel member to achieve fair sharing of benefits and costs. In order
to
achieve this objective the members may then meet regularly to reach
consensual
measures in light of changing market conditions monitored by a staff of
specialists. Since each member country in OPEC
retains
sovereign power over its own production rate and no individual one
(except,
possibly, Saudi Arabia as a swing producer) has the power to fix the
price
favorable to the cartel, it is predictable that member countries would
adopt
the market-sharing strategy as the way to achieve the cartel objective.
The
members join together to restrain their production for higher prices to
gain
optimum profit. Violating the cartel quota would serve no purpose as
individual
member may sell more oil but total revenue would fall because of lower
prices. Theoretically, if cartel members
have similar marginal cost curves, the ideal market-sharing strategy
can
achieve the same goals as the joint profit-maximizing ideal cartel
model,
outcomes of which are equivalent to those of a monopolist operating a
number of
plants.
Third World economies with surplus labor operate separately
from a collective disadvantaged position in global trade because global
capital
obeys the Law of One Price while global labor is exempt form the Law of
One
Price. As dollar hegemony forces all foreign investments into the
export
sectors of non-dollar economies to earn dollars from trade, it produces
a
structural shortage of capital for non-export domestic development in
all
developing countries. These non-dollar
economies then suffer from an imbalance between excess labor and a
shortage of
capital that prevents them from achieving full employment and to
improve
overall labor productivity. This
imbalance translates into low wages that depress domestic consumer
demand that
in turn discourages investment in a downward vicious cycle of perpetual
domestic underdevelopment. This
widespread local underdevelopment in turn prevents the global economy
from
developing its full growth potential from rising consumer demand. This hurts not only the developing economies,
but the advanced economies as well. On
the one hand, cross-border wage disparity has given rise to predatory
outsourcing
that threatens employment and wage levels in the advanced economies. On
the
other hand, low wages around the world prevents needed growth of
exports from
the advanced economies to balance trade. Thus raising wages around the
world to
reduce or even eliminate cross-border wage disparity is good for all
economies.
It would be the win-win proposition that neo-liberal free traders
promised but
never delivered. The current regressive terms of global trade need to
be
altered by a progressive global labor cartel.
An International
Labor Cartel is a Positive and Progressive Undertaking
Since competition for global capital in a deregulated global
financial market tends to depress wages worldwide to the detriment of
all, it
follows that a cartel to give labor fair pricing power in international
trade
would be a positive and progressive undertaking. Dollar hegemony has
deprived
Third World economies the option of using sovereign credit for domestic
development, leaving export trade as the only available alternative.
Yet
economic and monetary policy sovereignty of all Third World nations has
been
under relentless attack from neo-liberal terms of trade. But creating a
cartel for
labor along the lines of OPEC, a political organization with an
economic
agenda, i.e. a cartel for oil, is something that Third World leaders
can do
while they are still in command of political sovereignty. OPEC of
course got
its inspiration from the De Beer diamond cartel. The
Zaibatsu was a finance cartel in pre-war
Japan. When the US occupation broke up the Zaibatsu, the dispersed
companies
quickly reformed in Keiretsu of horizontally-integrated alliances
across
industries around a major bank. The
Keiretsu has been instrumental to Japan’s post-war economic recovery.
The OPEC leaders achieved pricing power in the global oil
market with two preconditions: ownership of oil in the ground (not
movable) they
occupy and political sovereignty. With that they managed to raise
the
price of oil, albeit with occasional failures and at the same time
reduce the
abusive waste of energy in the consuming countries, especial the
advanced
economies. Now the labor-intensive exporting countries have two
similar
preconditions: 1) workers that cannot leave because of immigration
regimes of
all advanced countries and 2) political sovereignty. They can do
the same
in pricing labor as OPEC did in pricing oil to provide a bench mark
global wage
platform and to steadily raise wages to alter the current destructive
terms of
trade in the globalized market. The idea should also get support from
the US corporations
and labor movement and the likes of Lou Dobbs.
The way to do this is to make it impossible for global
capital to exploit cross-border wage arbitrage for profit without
raising wages
to close to wage gap, and if necessary, with countervailing charges or
taxes. Conversely,
tax preference can be tied to a rising wage policy. Globalization
itself is not
a bad development. What is destructive is the current terms of trade
behind
globalization which operates as a “beggar thy neighbor process” while
trumpeting
a win-win fallacy. The idea of economic development is not to
redistribute wealth by making the rich poor, but to create new wealth
by making
the poor rich at an accelerated pace to reverse the widening gap
between rich
and poor. Current terms of globalized trade widens the income and
wealth
gap by driving wages down and making low wages as the main factor in
measuring competitiveness. The neo-liberal
financial
system provides credit only to firms that profit from driving wages
down and
withholds credit from firms that raise wages. What the world
needs is a
credit allocation regime and a profit measuring system to link
corporate profitability
with raising wage levels rather than lowering them. Lest we
should
forget, this is a very American idea. Henry Ford did it in the US by
voluntarily
paying higher wages than the market norm so that his workers could
afford to
buy the cars they produced. The US experience has proved that the poor
can be
made richer without the rich getting poorer. This can be done by
enlarging the
pie while benignly re-dividing it so that no one gets less than before
while
the poor get more faster, rather than just re-dividing a shrinking pie.
The US
itself provided very good lessons on how it could be done. The US
has a
superior Gini coefficient, which measures net income equality, than
many
underdeveloped economies. And the US is a richer nation by far. This
shows that
if global Gini coefficient improves with more income equality, the
global
economy can also be richer. Much of the problems currently faced by the
US
economy have to do with the use of debt to mask a declining Gini
coefficient.
US Prosperity Built on High Wages
The US economy emerged after WWII as the strongest, the most
productive and the most dynamic in the world, not only because Europe,
Britain,
Japan and the USSR and were all in war ruins, and the rest of the world
was
left barren from a century of plundering by Western imperialism, but
because
the US model was operatively superior. This superiority was based
on
three factors: 1) high socio-economic mobility, 2) high wages with
relatively
equality of income and 3) heavy public investment in physical and
social infrastructure
such as transportation, education and research and public health.
Socio-economic mobility manifested itself in a flowering of creative
entrepreneurship
and innovation. It was easy to turn new ideas and innovations into new
small
businesses because of pent-up demand from the war years and a friendly
posture
of banks that provided easy credit for returning veterans who aspired
to be
small business owners. Big business applied its war-time
management
techniques to concentrate on heavy industry, benefiting from
technological and
management breakthroughs made in war research and systems analysis,
leaving small
and medium business opportunities to young new entrepreneurs to exploit
innovations to fill the needs of a market economy in transition from
war
production to peace production. Communication and transportation
were
relatively costly and cumbersome, keeping centralized management from
being cost-effective
in pervasive control of local markets, thus enabling small local
entrepreneurs
to compete effectively with big business through nearness to market and
sheer
nimbleness to change. A new middle class of good and rising income came
quickly
into existence that was confident, dynamic and independent. This
came to
be recognized around the world as the American Spirit, the belief that
the
combination of good ideas and hard work will lead to success in a free
and open
market, even though only a very small part of the US market was really
free and
open. China is now at the beginning of this path of development with
spectacular success.
High wages and full employment in post-war US led to strong consumer
demand and
a happy working class whose economic interests were effectively
promoted by a
strong labor movement that had developed productive symbiotic
relationships
with management from war production. Home ownership was promoted by
government
subsidies through credit guarantees and interest ceilings. All that was
need to
realize the American dream was a job, the income from which was closely
calibrated to pay for a home, a car, a good life, free education,
affordable
health care and comfortable retirement, all accomplished with consumer
financing. The concept of pay as you go liberated Americans from the
slavery of
save first, consume later, which would produce overcapacity while
consumer
needs remained unsatisfied. And jobs were plentiful because consumer
demand was
strong. There was living democracy in the workplace, with bosses forced
to
treat workers with equality and with the respect awarded to customers
in order
to retain them. The income gap between factory workers and
professionals
(engineers, lawyer, doctors, etc.) were narrow. Many hourly-paid
union
tradesmen such as plumbers, carpenters, metal workers, electricians,
etc.
actually enjoyed higher income than professional engineers, at least in
the early
decades of their careers. Aside from old money, income disparity
among
the working population was small, giving society de-facto
socio-economic-cultural
democracy. This happy outcome was
because work was fairly and highly compensated.
The GI Bill obliterated the elitist tradition of higher education.
Children of
working class, farming and immigrant background went to college and
graduate
school for the first time in US history and went on to be titans of
industry
and academia. This public-funded investment in human capital was
the
single largest contributor to US prosperity for the post-war decades
until this
generation reached retirement age in the mid 1970s.
Despite the anti-communist ideology behind the Cold War, the US economy
benefited greatly from socialistic programs that began in the New Deal
while
the core of the US economy remained firmly rooted in capitalism. The
combination of a capitalistic core and a socialist infrastructure
produced one
of the greatest prosperities in human history, relatively free of
oppressive
exploitation. Within limits, the US was undeniably the freest and
riches
society in the world. With such a wondrously successful system,
it was a
puzzle why Americans were told by their leaders to fear communism since
the whole
world was trying to copy the US. Even the USSR was copying the US model
with
the ideological modification of state capitalism at the core. Where the
USSR
erred was that it failed to allow a consumer market of small
entrepreneurs, a
mistake China is now avoiding.
Income Disparity
Hurts the US Economy
The good times in the US did not last
forever, but the decay
came imperceptibly slowly. Cold War paranoia in the US reversed
the
populist policies and arrested the economic ascendance of the middle
class in
the US while it turned the young socialist economies around the world
into
victims of garrison state politics. The Korea War set the US on a path
against
all national liberation movements in all former colonies which
constituted two
thirds of the world’s population that had risen from the post-war ashes
of
European imperialism. The Vietnam War was a continuation of that
misguided
geopolitical posture. These counterproductive wars not only did not
achieve
their misguided geopolitical objectives, they forced the US to rely on
Japan as
a convenient and docile ally both militarily and economically, shutting
out the
rest of Asia, and most importantly, its vast market by self-negating
embargos
imposed by US foreign policy. In Europe, confrontation with Soviet
communism
after the Berlin Crisis forced the US to build up defeated Germany as a
key
military and economic client state. These policies set up the US in a
new role
of neo-imperialist in a global struggle of the rich against the poor.
To
support Germany and Japan and to incorporate them economically into a
reactionary West led by the US, the US decided to allocate the sunset
industries to their economies, such as auto manufacturing, while the US
kept
the high-tech industries such as aircraft manufacturing, television and
computers and most importantly defense industries. Japan and South
Korea were
later given steel-making and shipbuilding to help support US logistics
in Asian
wars. The original idea was that subsidized imports to the US from
these new
allies were to be tolerated only on a temporary basis, that they were
expected
to supply low-priced goods to the parts of the global market that were
too poor
to buy US goods produced at high wages. But the Cold War embargos put
all such
markets off limit to US allies, forcing the US market to stay
permanently open
to Japan and Germany. In time, the US came to depend on relatively
inexpensive
imports from Japan and Germany to help contain inflation. Both
German and
Japan failed to recover to this day as truly sovereign powers to
fulfill their
full potential as independent states.
Meanwhile, domestically the worst aspects of both capitalism and
socialism were
working hand-in-hand to weaken the US economy. The organization man
emerged
from US corporate bureaucratic culture, robbing the economy of
creativity and
initiative. The likes of IBM, General Motors and General Electric
became
ruthless predators that chewed up independent entrepreneurs for
breakfast by
their market monopoly. A MIT professor of electronics with a new
technology would start a successful company by servicing IBM which then
would
force a fire sale of the new company to IMB by threatening to stop
buying from
it. Within a year of its success, the new innovative company would
become another
IBM subsidiary managed by the huge bureaucracy of a gigantic
enterprise. And
the professor would retire from creative work with the sale proceeds.
In this
manner, IBM grew into a sluggish giant on a diet of other people’s
ingenuity. Unionism turned into a drag on productivity and
efficiency and
the main resistant against change, rather than the driving force of
innovation to
protect labor’s pricing power. Finance and banking evolved in ways that
discriminated against small business and those with inadequate capital,
and
pushed innovative entrepreneurs to seek funding from venture capitalist
firm
whose main aim to sell the new companies to big business for a quick
profit.
Risk-taking eventually became too costly for entrepreneurs, but cheap
for
speculators. The US trade deficit grew along with war-induced
fiscal
deficits threatening the gold-backed dollar. Keynesian deficit
financing,
instead of a formula to moderate the business cycle, became a permanent
feature
even in boom times to support ever higher levels of structural
unemployment. Nixon
was finally forced by recurring trade deficits and fiscal
irresponsibility to
take the dollar off gold in 1971; and by 1973, OPEC was allowed to
raise oil
prices on condition that petroldollars would be recycled backed to the
US to limit
damage to the US economy. As the US economy continued to stagnate,
offering low
returns on investment, petrodollars went to so-called newly
industrialized
countries (NIC). This was the beginning of globalization which at first
was
called interdependence, as half of the world was still under communist
rule. The US was compensating for the slowdown in domestic growth
with
overseas expansion, by arguing that the US economy was merely growing
beyond
its borders rather than shrinking domestically, which would only be
true if the
US accepted a restructuring of its economy: by shifting from domestic
manufacturing to global finance.
Jimmy Carter presided over this restructuring transition of the US
economy and
saw a “national malaise” of spiritual despondency and economic
stagflation that
was inevitable when the population failed to understand the transition
of the
US from a strong nation to a hegemonic empire, a fact that US
transnational
corporations could not level with the US public due to US self-image.
The same
thing happened to the controversy over Corn Laws during the early days
of the
British Empire. Silly talks of Japan and Germany overtaking the US were
widely
circulated in clueless segments of the US, lamenting the disappearance
of the
good old days from the rearview mirror, unable to see when the rest of
the
nation was heading without them. Paul Volcker administered a
blood-letting cure on US inflation and restored health to the US
financial
sector by sacrificing US industry which was increasingly forced to go
global,
leaving the US worker jobless on the roadside.
Neo-liberal Global Trade
with Dollar Hegemony Depress Wages Worldwide
Bill Clinton was the first neo-liberal president. Just as
life-long anti-communist Nixon could strike a deal with communist China
without
being accused domestically of being soft on communism, something that a
populist JFK could never have done during the Cold War, Clinton was
more
helpful to US transnational big business by undercutting organized
labor than
any Republican dared venture. Clinton was able to silent US labor
protestation
against job outsourcing in globalization because the union vote had no
other
candidate to vote for. Union wrath was deflected from US
management to
off-shore labor first in Japan, then Southeast Asia and then China,
exploiting
deep-rooted racial hostility in US labor movements. But it was Robert
Rubin,
consummate bond trader from Goldman Sachs, who devised dollar
hegemony as
a way of financing a perpetual trade deficit by forcing US trade
partners to
recycle their trade surpluses denominated in dollars back into US
capital
accounts by buying US Treasuries that yield low returns. Thus
dollar
hegemony allows the US to enjoy a rising current account deficit by a
guaranteed
capital account surplus and the benefits of a strong dollar and low
interest
rate all at the same time. The Clinton Administration effectively
resisted political pressure from US export manufacturers to devalue the
dollar,
arguing that devaluation, while helpful to US export, is not good for
overall
US national interest, which lies in the global dominance of finance.
And US
global financial dominance depends on a strong dollar made possible by
dollar
hegemony. Financial dominance is the
caviar and the trade deficit is in fact the bait to capture sturgeons
in the
form of trade partners. By export more to the US for dollars than
they
import from the US payable in dollars, the trading partners of the US
are
fooled into thinking that their trade surpluses with the US are a good
deal
while they are shipping real wealth produced by underpaid labor to the
US in
exchange for paper money that can only be invested in the US while
their own
domestic sectors are starved for capital.
The economic transformation of the industrial base in New
England in the US was accomplished in the 1950s by shifting textile
manufacturing to the low-wage south. This
was repeated by shifting manufacturing
from the Midwest to overseas
in the 1990s, but unlike New England in the 1950s which transformed
into a new
economy of finance and high tech, the Midwest remained mostly a rust
belt that
never recovered. This is because the profit from the economic
transition,
instead of going to start new, more efficient plants, foes to finance
debt that
keeps US consumers spending. Robert Rubin, a Wall Street bond trader
par
excellence who became US Treasury Secretary, is an internationalist
whose idea
of America does not extend beyond west of the Hudson River.
Politically, the
Wall Street internationalists, not all of whom are Jewish, appeased the
opposition by deregulation of the banking and finance sector, so that
non-New-York financial firms could get in on the action. In
reality, the
New York banks end up turning all banks across the nation as their
local
branches. Banks in the US, instead of being local financial pillars
that
prosper only with the local economy of their domicile, now can profit
from
destroying the local economies. Early
financial
globalization was pioneered by super-WASP Citibank led by Walter
Wriston who
championed lending petro-dollars to Third World governments who were
expected
to be bankrupt proved when profitable investment with good returns were
getting
hard to come by in the US domestic market.
The battle between those who sold their labor and those who
manipulated finances was won hands down by the financiers in the age of
globalization. This is because cross-border wage arbitrage, unlike
financial
arbitrage that often eliminates market inefficiency by lifting the
market value
of the coupled instruments, works only to depress wages, never to lift
them.
Workers are not allowed to go to where wages are high, yet capital is
encouraged to go where wages are low. Thus while the aim financial
arbitrage is
to lift asset value to enhance profit, the aim of wage arbitrage is to
lower
wage value to enhance profit. To defuse political backlash of falling
wages in
the advanced economies caused by outsourcing to low-waged economies, an
asset
bubble, including housing, was allowed to give the masses in the
advanced
economies capital gain income to compensate of reduced income from
work. The formula
was to take jobs from high-pay US workers and give them to low-wage
oversea
workers, and to compensate US workers with rising prices on their
homes, low
price imports and larger return for their pension fund investments
overseas.
This formula worked for a while, but it requires an escalating
expansion of the
money supply to support a debt bubble. The Fed under Greenspan
managed to
accommodate debt-driven expansion for over a decade, until the problem
reached
a point when further expansion of the money supply does not leave money
in the
US, but goes only to the global dollar economy off shore. US
corporations are
lining up to shed their pension obligation in the name of maintaining
global
competitiveness. The US housing bubble will burst from insufficient and
stagnant
income even if mortgage rates should remain low.
Thus while it may still be in US imperial interest to expand
the dollar economy globally, this expansion is facing domestic
political
opposition because an expanding global dollar economy leads to
imbalances in
the US economy with clear winners and losers that will soon translate
into
political expressions in future elections. In a democracy, when losers
exceed
winners in numbers, even if not in aggregate monetary value, the
electoral
impact can be immediate. The dollar economy, which benefits primarily
the financial
sectors in the US and other money center locations, continues to expand
while the
non-financial sectors of the US economy collapse. With domestic
political
opposition building in the US, it is of critical importance how US
policy will
deal with the challenge of domestic imbalances created by
globalization.
The Need to Reduce Global Wage Disparity
US policies need be changed to stop the destructive impact
of dollar hegemony on both the US economy as well as the global
economy. The
global dollar economy is shaping up to benefit unfairly only a small
number of
financial speculators and manipulators, not the world’s
population. The
key is to eliminate as quickly as possible global income disparity that
enable
destructive cross-border wage arbitrage. The US should promote,
even
impose, terms of trade that reduces wage disparity both domestically
and globally. This will allow both the US
and the global
economy to expand faster. Since it is economically painful and
politically
dangerous to lower wages in the advance economies, the only option is
to raise
wages at a rapid rate in the currently low-wage regions to reduce
global wage
disparity. This can be done only if
global wage parity is set as a policy objective, rather than letting
market
forces dictate a downward spiral of falling wages. As global wages
reach
parity, manufacturing will be redistributed to locations of true
overall
competitiveness, rather being based on the single dimensional factor of
wages. Global
trade and exports will be conducted to benefit domestic development
rather than
to deter domestic development. Global income will rise, creating more
consumer demand
to reduce or even eliminated current global overcapacity.
Without an OLEC cartel to protect the pricing power of labor in a
global
financial market, the Law of One Price will discriminate against labor
by
pushing wages down. The Law of One
Prices echoes David Ricardo’s Iron Law of Wages which supplements
Thomas
Malthus’ population theory by asserting that wages tend to stabilize at
the
lowest subsistence level as a result of unregulated market forces.
Malthus
observed that population growth would mathematically outstrip the means
of
subsistence, giving economics the label of the “dismal science.” The theory of marginal utility as
espoused
by William Stanley Jevons in England, Leon Walrus in France, Eugene
Bohm-Bawerk
in Austria, Irving Fisher and Alfred Marshall in the US asserts that
the market
value of a commodity is determined by the demand for it and the
relative
scarcity at any given time and situation, and not by any intrinsic
value.
Marginal price is the price above which no buyer will buy.
Marginal land is land that will not repay the
cost of labor and capital applied to its cultivation or improvement. Marginal wage is the wage above which
employment will cease. But while labor
is a commodity, humans are not. There
are basic human needs that every economy is required to first satisfy
before
market rules can be applied. For this
reason, all civilized societies forbade slavery, child labor and other
inhumane
labor practices.
The Law of One Price for labor decrees that the Iron Law of
Wages will depress marginal wage to the lowest possible level if left
to market
forces. Yet the theory of marginal value
of labor operating within a regime of neo-liberal terms of trade only
applies
impeccable logic to an artificially structure disguised as fundamental
truth.
The terms of trade in a labor market in which an anti-inflation
monetary policy
structurally disallows any scarcity of labor to emerge is inherently
prejudicial to the fair pricing of labor. Similarly, the theory of
marginal
value in the flawed terms of trade in the auto market leads Detroit to
produce
unsafe cars at any speed by calculating that the cost of law suits from
injury
and death by unsafe cars is less costly than raising auto safety
standards when
the monetary value of injury and death are set too low by the courts. The current global overcapacity is a direct
result of global wages being set too low by global wage arbitrage,
depriving
the world of the full potential of consumer demand.
This overcapacity can be corrected by a
global labor cartel.
Purchasing Power
Parity, the Law of One Price and Exchange Rates
Purchasing power parity (PPP) between currencies measures
the disconnection between exchange rates and local prices that defy the
Law of
One Price in a globalized economy. Purchasing
power parity is reached when
exchange rates between two currencies are adjusted to enable both
currencies to
buy the same amount of goods and services at local prices. The PPP gap
between
the US dollar and the Chinese yuan is estimated to be 4, meaning that
one
Chinese yuan buys four times as much in China than its current exchange
rate
equivalent in dollars buys in the US. A PPP gap highlights the
distortion
exchange rates exert on the “Law of One Price” in cross-border
trade. Purchase
power parity contrasts with interest rate parity (IRP), which assumes
that the
behavior of investors, whose transactions are recorded on the capital
account,
induces changes in the exchange rate. For a dollar investor to earn the
same
interest rate on his investment in a foreign economy with a PPP gap of
four
times, such as the purchasing power disparity between the US dollar and
the
Chinese yuan, the return would have to buy four time more in China than
it does
in the US. Thus for every dollars of
profit US investors require from investment in China, four dollars
equivalent
in Chinese goods and services are needed to support the prevailing
exchange
rate. Accordingly Chinese wages would have to be at least four times
lower than
US wages unless inflation in China closes the PPP gap, or purchasing
power
disparity, between the two currencies. But
inflation in China will cause the yuan to
fall against the dollar,
keeping the PPP gap constant even as Chinese prices rise. This shows
that
pushing China to upward revalue its currency is futile as Chinese wage
would
fall to compensate for a stronger yuan. What
China needs to do is to raise Chinese
wages within a stable
exchange rate.
Applying the Law of One Price to Global
Labor
The Law of One Price says that identical goods should sell
for the same price in two separate markets when there are no
transportation
costs and no differential taxes or tariffs applied in the two markets.
A global
trade regime governed by the Law of One Price should have wages in two
separate
labor markets converging through arbitrage to close the disparity. Since it is economically regressive for the
higher wages to fall, the only productive convergence would be for the
lower
wages to rise. In finance, the Law of One Price is an economic rule
which
states that in an efficient market, a security must have a single
price, no
matter how that security is created. For example, if an option can be
created
using two different sets of underlying securities, then the total price
for
each would be the same; otherwise an arbitrage opportunity would exist.
Because
of the Law of One Price, put-call parity requires that the call option
and the
replicating portfolio must have the same price. Interest rate parity,
which
plays an important role in the foreign exchange markets, is another
example of
the Law of One Price. For the Law of One Price to hold between two
economies,
purchasing price parity, exchange rate parity between the paired
currencies and
interest rate parity must all exist simultaneously. Any violation of
the Law of
One Price is an arbitrage opportunity. The same should apply to the
disaggregated labor markets in the global economy.
The issue of unified wages is not only a
matter of morality or social justice, as liberals asserted during the
industrial revolution and the age of imperialism and as neo-liberals
and market
fundamentalists reject in the age of globalization and neo-imperialism. It is the law of a truly free global
market. While finance arbitrage uses the
Law of One Price to raise market value of securities, cross-border wage
arbitrage thus far only obstructs the Law of One Price in separate
labor
markets to keep wages low everywhere. A common mistake traders make is
to
forget the caveat that arbitragable price discrepancy should be
isolated from
factors such as tax treatment, liquidity or credit risk. Otherwise,
they will
put on what they perceive to be an arbitrage when in fact there is no
violation
of the Law of One Price beyond government intervention.
The Law of One Price underlies the important
financial
engineering definition of arbitrage-free pricing even for disparity of
prices
created by government policy.
To understand the positive potential for cross-border wage
arbitrage, beyond the destructive impact of archaic outsourcing,
lessons can be
learned from how profit is generated by arbitrage plays in financial
markets. If risks from oil, weather,
environmental impact, credit and interest rates can be arbitraged
profitably, there
is good reason that risks associated with rising wages can also be
arbitraged
for profit.
Using Wage Arbitrage
to Stabilize Rising Wages
In finance theory,
an arbitrage is a “free lunch”, a transaction or portfolio that makes a
profit
without risk. Suppose a futures contract trades on two different
exchanges. If,
at one point in time, the contract is bid at $40.02 on one exchange and
offered
at $40.00 on the other, a trader could purchase the contract at one
price and
sell it at the other to make a risk-free profit of a $0.02. If the market for that security has
sufficient broadness and depth, the arbitrageur can make millions. And
if an
arbitrage opportunity is created by a central bank on two currency, as
the Bank
of England did in 1992 defending the pound sterling, a arbitrageur like
George
Soros could make billions in a couple of days at the expense of the
British
economy. In 1998, an article Soros wrote in the
Financial Times
on the inevitability of a Russian devaluation of its currency
precipitated the
fall of the Russian Government, a massive default on its debts, and
widespread
financial panic that brought down Long Term Capital Management (LTCM),
another
high-flying hedge fund, requiring involvement of the Federal Reserve in
a $3,5
billion bailout. The IMF plan for Russia
assumed that the maturing treasury bills (GKOs) could be rolled over at
albeit
astronomically high interest rate. But the holders of the GKOs were
banks that
borrowed dollars to buy the same GKOs which could not repay the dollars
without
the foreign banks agreeing to lend them more money, which the foreign
banks
were not. So the Russian banks could not roll over the GKO at any
price,
leaving a missing link in the financial chain. As the Russian public
started
withdrawing its savings from the national savings banks, the missing
link
widened. What started out as a fixable hole of $7 billion, within a
week or two
became a unfixable abyss. Soros and his partners lost their investment
in a
Russian telephone company along with countless others.
Most arbitrage
opportunities normally only reflect minor pricing discrepancies between
markets
or correlated instruments. Per-transaction profits tend to be small,
and they
can be negated entirely by retail transaction costs. Accordingly, most
arbitrage is performed by institutions that have very low wholesale
transaction
costs and can make up for small profit margins by doing a large volume
of
transactions. Formally, theoreticians define an
arbitrage as a trading
strategy that requires the investment of
no net capital, cannot lose money, and has a positive probability of
making
money. Arbitrage is the quintessential
virtual-capital play in capitalism.
Wages in different
labor markets change for complex reasons. The
gap in wages measured by standard
productivity units changes which
produces arbitrage opportunities. Any company whose
revenue is
affected by weather has a potential need for weather risk management
products
that hedge the company’s exposure to weather deviating from historical
norms. This is true for companies that
consume oil, or impacted by changes in interest rates or any kind of
uncertainty. In 2003, US Defense
Department considered launching a market for terrorism futures to
improve the
prediction and prevention of terrorist outrages. All
companies are affected in their profit by
wage/productivity ratios. A labor
cartel, like an oil cartel, cannot be expected to keep prices at fixed
level
for long periods, nor would it be necessary. Thus
a wage risk management derivative can be
structured to mitigate
wage risks and reduce resistance to wage rise caused by fear of
unexpected
temporary wage decline in competing markets. Like
weather and environmental derivatives,
hedging can be a defensive
use of wage index derivatives. Strategic planning linked to wage
uncertainties
can also be financially backed by wage index derivatives for pro-active
use to
sustain wage targets set by the labor cartel.
While a market is
said to be arbitrage free if prices in
that market
offer no arbitrage opportunities, there is a second use of the term
shunned by
theoretical purists but in wide use for several decades to become
standard in
all markets. According to this usage, an arbitrage is a leveraged
speculative
transaction or portfolio. During the 1980s, junk bond financing
funded an overheated mergers and
acquisitions market that produced new corporations, such as CNN,
Microsoft and
many of the names that are now respected industrial giants. Arbitragers
of this
period were speculators who took leveraged equity positions either in
anticipation of a possible takeover or to put a firm in play. They also
engaged
in greenmail. Ivan Boesky was a famous arbitrager from this period who
was
ultimately convicted of insider trading. Michael Milken, the junk bond
king
also was sent to prison on finance-related charges.
But
the role of junk bond in financing new companies which otherwise could
be
secure financing was undeniable. The
presence of a labor carter to sustain rising wages that stimulate
consumer demand
can also be financed by speculative arbitrage. If
the conditions should come into existence,
the almost inexhaustible
creativity of the financial markets will response to the challenge.
Neoclassical
Economics Arbitrarily Assigns Unequal Pricing Powers between Capital
and Labor
David Ricardo's interest in economics was sparked by Adam
Smith’s Wealth of Nations (1776) whose thesis is that the
division of
labor (specialization) enhances economic growth. Ricardo’s law of
rent
was seminally influenced by Malthusian concepts. He propounded his
“Iron Law of
Wages” and a labor theory of value. To
Ricardo, rent is a result and not a cause of price.
The “Iron Law of Wages” asserts that wages
cannot rise above subsistence levels. The
theory of value maintains that in
exchange, the value, not the
price, of goods is measured by the amount of labor expended in their
production. Smith also saw advancements in mechanization and
international
trade as engines of growth through the facilitation of further
specialization.
Because savings by the rich was seen as what provides investment and
hence
economic growth, Ricardo saw unequal income distribution as being one
of the
most important determinants of national economic growth. This is a
critical
shortcoming in Ricardo’s proposition, as in the modern economy, capital
comes
increasingly from the pension funds of workers, not exclusively from
the rich. However,
Ricardo posited savings to be in part determined by the profits of
stock: as
the capital stock of a country increased, profit declined - not because
of
decreasing marginal productivity, but rather because competition
between
capitalists for workers would bid wages up to reduce profit. So keeping
the living
standards of workers low was another way to maintain or accelerate
economic
growth. This was the critical error
Ricardo made in his observation of industrial capitalism.
Ricardo did not understand that as
industrialization advances, overcapacity will result unless workers are
paid
enough to consume what they produced. Ricardo did not foresee that free
markets
must include free labor markets that would enhance worker market power
if
economic growth were to be maintained. Ricardo
reasoned that if labor cost rises with labor productivity, such rise
will
neutralize any marginal rise in return to capital which requires
productivity
rising faster than wages. Ricardo thus provided the “scientific”
rationale for
the anti-labor mentality of capitalism which is not only unnecessary
but also
factually incorrect. For Ricardo, capital
is deployed to enhance labor productivity to increase return on
capital, not to
raise the standard of living of workers by raising worker income. The fixation with regressive theory is the
rationale for the need of a labor cartel such as OLEC.
February 20, 2006
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