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The
Coming Trade War
By
Henry C.K. Liu
Part I: The Coming Trade War and Global Depression
Part II: Dollar Hegemony Against Sovereign Credit
Part III: Trade in the Age of Overcapacity
Part IV: Scarcity Economics and Overcapacity
Part V: Trade Related Aspects of
Intellectual Property
Rights (TRIPS)
This article appeared in AToL
on August 5, 2005
Property rights are a social institution, not a natural
phenomenon. Intellectual property is an
invention of the knowledge-based economy. Both free traders and
protectionists in
the US agree on the need to protect US intellectual property (IP)
rights globally
in general and in China especially. Of course a protectionist regime
has less,
if any, leverage at its disposal for combating the violation of
intellectual
property rights outside its borders. The Uruguay Round in 1986 produced
the WTO
Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement. It is supposed to be an attempt to narrow the
discrepancy in ways these rights are protected in different countries
around
the world, and to bring them under common international rules. It
establishes
minimum levels of protection that each government has to give to the
intellectual property of fellow WTO members. In doing so, it attempts
to strike
a balance between the long term benefits and inevitable short term
costs to global
society at large. Society benefits in the long term when IP protection
encourages creation and invention, especially after the limited period
of
protection expires and the creations and inventions enter the public
domain. National
governments are allowed to reduce any short term costs through various
exceptions, for example to tackle critical time-sensitive public health
problems. The WTO dispute settlement system is designed to settle
international
trade disputes over IP rights before such disputes translate into
political
tension.
Yet ideas and knowledge are increasingly important, even
dominant, parts of trade. Because technological underdevelopment in
many
countries is traceable to the historical legacy of Western imperialism,
TRIPS
can be viewed as condoning hidden trade-restricting tariffs imposed on
the
world by the technologically-advanced economies to perpetuate cultural
imperialism. Prices of goods that carry IP rights invariably enjoy
astronomical
margins of profit over production cost. This high margin is
rationalized by the
claim that most of the cost of new medicines and other high technology
products
lie in the amount of invention, innovation, research, design and
testing
involved, not production cost.
The current high margin is designed to not only repay past
research and development costs, but to finance on-going such costs to
sustain an
uninterrupted future stream of inventions. This means the technology
gap
between rich and poor economies will be widened with time under TRIPS.
Only
established mega drug companies operating with a de facto economic
monopoly through
astronomical price mark-ups can afford to develop new drugs. With all
the talk
about the need for competition policy, IP rights protection is shaping
up to be
the most anti-competitive regime in world trade. Further, in many
advanced economies,
such research and development costs are subsidized by government
funding or tax
deductions, paid for by the general public. Yet patent earnings seldom,
if
ever, flow back into private bank accounts of individual taxpayers in
the form
of tax rebates.
Films, music recordings, books, computer software and
on-line services are bought because of the information and creativity
they
contain, not because of the plastic, metal or paper used to make them.
The cost
of material and printing is a miniscule part of the price of these
products. The bulk of the price goes to
pay for advertising, distribution and only finally fees for licensing
IP rights
of the creators. Much of the revenue from IP rights goes to middleman
organizations rather than original creators, weakening the argument
that its
protection encourages invention.
Many products
that used to
be traded as low-tech goods or basic
commodities now contain a higher proportion of invention and design in
their
value - for example brand-name clothing or genetically-modified new
varieties
of plants and produce. Creators are given the right to prevent others
from
using their inventions, designs or other creations - and to demand
payment in
return for others using them. These “intellectual property rights” take
a
number of forms. For example, books, paintings and films come under
copyright;
inventions can be patented; brand names and product logos can be
registered as
trademarks; and so on. Governments have given creators these rights as
incentives for producing ideas that will benefit society as a whole.
But often, intellectual property rights are abused to
protect trade-restraining monopolies. In such cases, both the
definition of
intellectual property and the enforcement of its protection can be
unjust and
oppressive. When copies of Louis Vuitton bags of same quality can be
sold at a
fraction of the price of the original at a profit, it is empirical
evidence
that the profit margin of the original is excessive. If the copies are
of
inferior quality, then they are caricatures and arguably not a
violation of intellectual
property rights. Fakes that are sold as fakes do not qualify as theft
of the
original. It is not illegal in any country to sell copies of the Mona
Lisa as
copies. The reason behind widespread intellectual property rights
violation is because
unjust and oppressive laws invite popular resistance.
The extent of protection and enforcement of intellectual
property rights varies widely around the world according to varying
stages of
economic development in different countries. As
intellectual property became more important
in trade, these
differences became a source of tension in international economic
relations. New
internationally-agreed trade rules for intellectual property rights are
supposed to be a way to introduce more order and predictability, and
for
disputes to be settled more systematically before they translate into
political
tensions. But they can also be viewed as a new form of rule-based
knowledge
imperialism. There exist an inherent
inconsistency and conflict of interest for an industrial standard to
claim
protection of intellectual property rights because the condition for
being
accepted as industry standard is that all in the industry can use it
freely. An
industry standard that demands payment of fees for its use is a
monopoly.
The argument that protection of intellectual property rights
is indispensable for economic growth has no basis in history. The
socio-economic and political history of the US was shaped by the
widespread
piracy of a simple pattern held by Eli Whitney (1765-1825) on the
cotton gin,
the widespread use of which had immense socio-economic and political
repercussions.
Little cotton had been produced in America prior to 1793. During the
colonial
period, the main crop was tobacco, but tobacco farming had ceased to be
profitable as a result of soil exhaustion. The tedious process of
separating
short cotton fiber from the seeds had to be done by hand and took too
much time
to be profitable even in a slave economy. A few planters grew a
long-staple
strain called Sea Island cotton that was easier to separate, but this
only
grows in coastal areas, not inland, where only short-staple cotton can
be
grown. Whitney’s cotton gin made it possible to grow short-staple
cotton inland
for profit. The cotton kingdom then stretched quickly over a vast area
from Georgia
and South Carolina westward as far as Texas. With the growth of the
British
textile industry, cotton growers in the US were assured of a market for
all
they could produce. But cotton growing was labor-intensive, which
perpetuated
the south's slavery economy, which until the arrival of the cotton gin
was
fading as an economic institution because of a dwindling need for cheap
labor. Also,
cotton, unlike rice and sugar, was a more democratic crop, being
equally
profitable for large landowners with hundreds of slaves and for small
farmers
with a couple of hundred acres and two or three slaves. Right up to the
Civil
War, half of the cotton was grown by small farmers with fewer than six
slaves
each. The widespread piracy of the cotton gin pattern created a
socio-economic
condition that became one of the key causes of the Civil War. Thus for the South, the civil war was in
essence a people’s war against the big business interests of the North.
In recent years, the US judiciary and some highly-placed US
government economists have been claiming that in the knowledge-based
economy,
antitrust laws may threaten economic liberty, turning antitrust on its
head.
The US Appeals Court’s decision (District of Columbia circuit) on
Microsoft in
July 2001 raised the issue with timely urgency. The justices
acknowledged that
tying browsers (Internet Explorer) or other add-on programs to computer
operating systems (DOS-based Windows) may not be bad for economic
freedom. The
court, while upholding a lower court’s finding that Microsoft had
engaged in
unlawful monopolistic acts, said broadly that it is unclear how the
“current
monopolization doctrine should be amended to account for competition in
technologically dynamic markets.” And given these conditions of
uncertainty,
courts must demand “considerable experience with certain business
relationships,” such as software packages that bundle services
together, before
jumping to the conclusion that they are unlawful. The court said that
in the
future, all cases of tying involving platform software (upon which
other
computer programmers build) should be judged by a higher standard of
proof.
Existing antitrust law requires only the "per se"
test, which merely requires proof of the existence of a tie involving a
dominant producer. But the court now says that platform-software cases
must be
judged by the “rule of reason,” which requires courts to balance the
pro-competitive aspects of the tie against the anti-competitive ones.
The new
standard will almost certainly make it harder for government regulators
to
prove illegal tying in platform-software cases. This may make it easier
for
software firms to defend themselves when they bundle services together
and
offer them as one product. Thus whichever firm manages to establish an
“industry standard” in one module can force the market to accept its
bundling
in a clearly anti-competitive manner.
The court defended its deliberate indecisiveness at least
partly on the grounds that no one else had yet decided how the
monopolization
doctrines of the old economy should apply to the new. It feared that a
ban on
bundling, unless carefully considered, might “stunt valuable
innovation.” And
in general, the court noted, “we decide this case against a backdrop of
significant debate among academics and practitioners over the extent to
which
‘old economy’ monopolization doctrines should apply to firms competing
in
dynamic technological markets characterized by network effects.”
While the market has decidedly punctured the myth of the new
economy being exempt from laws of financial gravity, the court appears
to be
still a willing victim of self-delusion. Microsoft's operating system,
the
cumbersome and memory-gluttonous DOS, aside being a long way from the
most
innovative, became the industry standard by its dubious grafting on to
Windows,
which was not an original Microsoft innovation but somehow became
Microsoft’s
legal intellectual property. Moreover, the fee charged by Microsoft for
Windows
is outrageously excessive compared with typical pattern fees. Microsoft
does
not merely demand a copyright fee for the use of its pattern, it
forbids all
others from manufacturing Windows, which must be bought from Microsoft
as a
product, additional copies of which Microsoft can produce with no
significant
additional cost.
In some markets, customers might in fact want one company to
dominate because if it does, it will set a standard everyone can follow
and
that will make the product more valuable to all. The court's difficulty
was
that no one knew how to apply antitrust principles to such markets. But
an
industry-standard operating system for computers is very similar to an
industry-standard gauge of railways. Should the company that adopted a
gauge
that became the industry standard be permitted to prevent other firms
from
manufacturing rolling stock of the gauge without paying the company a
fee?
The court cited the overused example of the traditional
telephone system. The more people who subscribe to it, the more calls
all
consumers may make or receive. Each individual phone user thus benefits
from
the network in proportion to the number of other people who use it.
Once a
product like that, or a standard, achieves such wide acceptance,
consumers
definitely want the supplier of that product to be bigger rather than
smaller.
Under those circumstances, antitrust laws should intervene only
cautiously, to
avoid making matters worse for the consumer. But this is a confused
argument.
The issue is not that industry standards are themselves
anti-competitive. The
issue is that a single firm’s ownership of industry standards is
anti-competitive. The law should recognize that the benefits of being
an
industry standard must be balanced by responsibilities and obligations
to the
industry and the community at large.
For example, the Queen’s English has become the
international language of finance. Should all bankers and financiers
pay a fee
to the Queen of England for the use of her language in loan documents?
Industry
standards imply socialization. It is a very sound principle that if a
standard
is adopted industry-wide, that standard is owned by all users and must
be
freely available to all. Microsoft can bundle all it wants to serve the
public
better, but it should then make Windows free to all users and charge
only for
its new add-ons to compete with those offered by other firms.
The court concluded, amazingly, that in the end, the goal of
US competition law is not to promote competition for its own sake but
to
promote efficiency. This is a very peculiar attitude for an US court,
for the
whole US argument against monopolistic planned economy is its alleged
inefficiency. Larry Summers, former US Treasury secretary and now
president of
Harvard University, when he spoke to antitrust lawyers at a 2001
meeting of the
American Bar Association was at pain to stress the point that
monopolies may be
good. “First, do no harm,” he advised, borrowing from the Hippocratic
Oath.
Where the need for common standards naturally leads to monopoly power,
he
argued, antitrust enforcement actions may divide those markets in ways
that
will harm efficiency and the consumer. “We shouldn’t jump too quickly
to the
conclusion that because something increases competition it is
necessarily
good,” he said. But that is a socialist argument against a competitive
society versus
a cooperative society. Funny he did not say anything against the
deregulation
of airlines and energy. “The nature of competition is going to shift in
the
knowledge-based economy. The real question is whether there will be an
enduring
monopoly in something that is inferior,” he said, adding that the
history of
the software market made that seem unlikely. Unlikely? The DOS-based
Windows
software is universally considered by programmers as a grossly inferior
product; the only advantage in using it is that it is an industry
standard.
For neo-liberals, the only time a monopoly is good for the
consuming public is when the entire industry has become uneconomic by
deregulation, such the rail industry. Unfortunately, this is becoming
commonplace in energy, air transportation, health services,
telecommunications
and the entire new economy. There is no data to support the contention
that
Microsoft bundling has been good for consumers. It has been good only
for
Microsoft. Microsoft has spent more than
$3 billion in recent years settling lawsuits by rivals, including a
$1.6
billion deal with Sun Microsystems Inc. in 2004 and a $750 million
truce with
America Online, now part of Time Warner Inc., in 2003.
In a settlement announced on June 30, 2005,
IBM
will get $775 million in cash and $75 million worth of software from
Microsoft
to settle claims still lingering from the federal government’s
antitrust case
against Microsoft.
The Agreement on TRIPS, the subject of Annex 1C of the
agreement establishing the World Trade Organization, is the latest
translation
of cultural imperialism into economic imperialism on a global scale.
The
Schumpetrean "creative destruction" that US Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
tirelessly celebrates, is increasing distorted from the specific idea
of a
better mouse trap, to the systemic appropriation of the broad notion
linking
mice to traps. In the US, the self-proclaimed bastion of democracy, the
creative destruction of economic democracy through the rule of law is
in full
force. Not only do the poor economies not have a fighting chance under
TRIPS,
even the people in the advanced economies are quietly put in
technological
servitude by the new patent regime. The
notion that an individual should be granted permission to stake a
personal
claim on a nation’s natural resource (such as gold, oil and other
mineral
rights) is undemocratic enough, but now intellectual property rights
are
defined way beyond any reasonable personal efforts, such as writing a
book or a
symphony (covered under copyrights), to thoughts while shaving that
really
amount to wholesale robbery from the public domain. On a corporate
level,
intellectual property rights has become an economic weapon of mass
destruction,
preventing creativity from ever seeing sunlight. US annual revenue from
patent
licenses now exceeds $100 billion, which is larger than the foreign
exchange
reserves of most countries. Through
TRIPS, US patents gain global status without the burden of sharing
patent fees
with other governments.
Patents originally were intended to protect the lone
inventor, the pioneering genius in a garage, against the predatory
exploitation
of big companies. In today’s reality, the opposite is usually the case.
As
basic industries such as electricity, telecommunication and
broadcasting
developed in the 20th century, the great corporations learned to create
arsenals of interrelated patents to use as sword and shield by systemic
patent.
The recent advertisement campaign of Mercedes-Benz in the Wall Street
Journal
is built around a theme that there is only one Mercedes, the car with
10,000
plus patents. Patent battles have become
a strong catalyst for mergers, reducing competition in many domains.
The
largest corporations, with gigantic patent portfolios, routinely enter
into
cross-licensing agreements with their largest competitors.
Companies without portfolios of their own
have to pay cash, representing a hidden tax within the high-tech
economy. And the costs are skyrocketing. Revenues in the United States for patent
licenses were about $15 billion in 1990; eight years later they had
soared to
more than $100 billion. In 1999, IBM alone took in well over $1 billion
from
licensing and received a record 2,756 new patents. MSFT’s revenue would
dwindle
by 80% if its patent and copyrights are suddenly invalidated. A Boeing
software
engineer has patented a basic method of correcting the century in dates
stored
in databases and sent a threatening form letter to 700 of the nation's
largest
corporations (including The New York Times), demanding one-fourth of a
percent
of their total revenues, on the assumption that they probably have used
the
same method.
The four key elements in the issue of fair value in global trade
are IP, technology, information and pricing. In
classical exchange theory, price is
determined by cost and demand
which under free trade conditions will reach equilibrium to provide the
optimum
price and the largest sales. But free trade is a myth, and the US is
the
leading opponent of it in practice while being the leading proponent of
it in
rhetoric.
The rationale for IP protection is that it is needed to
subsidize the coming stream of new technology. But
as the Microsoft anti-trust case
demonstrates, IP inhibits new
technology more than it is generally recognized. The
same is evident in medical drugs. The only
arena this inhibition does not exist
is in military technology where the technological imperative still
governs at
the expense of price sensitivity. The fundamental criterion for a free
market
is the equal availability of information to all participants. When information is packaged and sold as
commodities, free market becomes the casualty. When two economies of
uneven
stages of technological development trade bilaterally, the concept of
countervailing trade surplus in favor of the less advanced economy is
simple
justice. Otherwise it would be
structural economical imperialism. More
and more developing nations are finally taking this view in their trade
negotiations with more advanced countries.
As for intellectual pirating, this is a serious and
controversial issue. The reason it is so widely practiced by most
less-advanced
economies is that there is a widespread view that the current
intellectual
property rights regime is not fair toward late comers. China is only
the latest
to join the club. The US as a young nation participated fearlessly in
intellectual piracy until it became technologically matured. The same
is true
with Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Europe was
notorious for its brazen theft of early technology from other cultures.
To be
fair, China should be entitled to claim retroactive IP rights on the
compass,
gunpowder, paper making, silk production, printing, etc., for a period
of 50
years starting now, to compensate for her loss due to the absence of an
international IP regime during her epoch of high inventiveness. The
Arabs
should be compensated for Arabian numerals without which modern
mathematics
would not develop. When a law is unjust, it invites widespread
violation. How
about an international affirmative action program for IP or IP amnesty
for the
underdeveloped Third World for 50 years? It will speed up global
development
and the advanced economies will also benefit more than they will lose
as a
result.
Next: Trade Wars lead to Shooting Wars
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